FA Cup· Quarter-finals· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
squad not published · form-based estimate| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.90 | 0.94–2.87 | 0.68–3.13 | 1.17 | 0.31–2.03 | 0.07–2.28 | 3.080.75–5.41 |
| Shots on target | 5.30 | 3.44–7.15 | 2.94–7.65 | 2.73 | 1.03–4.44 | 0.56–4.91 | 8.033.50–12.56 |
| Total shots | 13.82 | 10.12–17.53 | 9.09–18.56 | 9.35 | 5.97–12.73 | 5.04–13.66 | 23.1714.13–32.22 |
| Shots in box | 10.05 | 7.53–12.56 | 6.67–13.43 | 4.86 | 2.56–7.16 | 1.76–7.96 | 14.918.43–21.39 |
| Blocked shots | 3.78 | 2.20–5.37 | 1.66–5.90 | 2.31 | 0.89–3.72 | 0.40–4.21 | 6.092.07–10.11 |
| Corners | 5.69 | 3.49–7.90 | 2.89–8.49 | 4.34 | 2.36–6.32 | 1.83–6.86 | 10.044.72–15.35 |
| Possession % | 54.92 | 48.60–61.24 | 47.01–62.83 | 44.13 | 37.81–50.45 | 36.22–52.05 | — |
| Passes | 435 | 369–500 | 352–518 | 325 | 260–389 | 243–407 | 759594–925 |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.43 | 72.22–80.65 | 70.92–81.95 | 65.04 | 60.53–69.54 | 59.20–70.87 | — |
| Fouls | 10.63 | 7.78–13.49 | 6.89–14.38 | 11.18 | 8.24–14.13 | 7.32–15.04 | 21.8114.21–29.42 |
| Offsides | 2.12 | 0.92–3.33 | 0.57–3.68 | 1.88 | 0.71–3.04 | 0.38–3.37 | 4.000.95–7.05 |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 | 0.72–2.83 | 0.45–3.10 | 1.76 | 0.64–2.88 | 0.35–3.17 | 3.540.80–6.27 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.180.00–0.83 |
| GK saves | 2.62 | 1.21–4.04 | 0.82–4.42 | 2.95 | 1.39–4.50 | 0.96–4.93 | 5.571.78–9.36 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
54%
22%
23%
Shots on target
77%
14%
Total shots
80%
15%
Shots in box
89%
Blocked shots
65%
14%
21%
Corners
61%
28%
Fouls
41%
50%
Offsides
45%
21%
35%
Yellow cards
39%
22%
39%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+