FA Cup· Quarter-finals· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
squad not published · form-based estimate| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.68 | 0.72–2.64 | 0.46–2.90 | 1.24 | 0.38–2.10 | 0.14–2.35 | 2.930.60–5.25 |
| Shots on target | 5.06 | 3.20–6.91 | 2.70–7.41 | 3.77 | 2.06–5.48 | 1.59–5.95 | 8.834.30–13.36 |
| Total shots | 11.93 | 8.23–15.64 | 7.20–16.67 | 8.69 | 5.31–12.07 | 4.38–13.00 | 20.6211.58–29.67 |
| Shots in box | 1.75 | 0.00–4.27 | 0.00–5.13 | 1.29 | 0.00–3.59 | 0.00–4.39 | 3.040.00–9.52 |
| Blocked shots | 0.40 | 0.00–1.99 | 0.00–2.52 | 0.30 | 0.00–1.72 | 0.00–2.20 | 0.710.00–4.73 |
| Corners | 5.46 | 3.26–7.67 | 2.66–8.26 | 4.16 | 2.18–6.14 | 1.64–6.68 | 9.624.30–14.94 |
| Possession % | 52.04 | 45.72–58.36 | 44.12–59.95 | 46.23 | 39.91–52.55 | 38.31–54.15 | — |
| Passes | 432 | 367–497 | 349–515 | 362 | 298–427 | 280–444 | 794629–959 |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.18 | 67.96–76.39 | 66.66–77.70 | 68.40 | 63.89–72.91 | 62.56–74.24 | — |
| Fouls | 13.06 | 10.20–15.92 | 9.32–16.80 | 13.27 | 10.32–16.21 | 9.40–17.13 | 26.3318.72–33.93 |
| Offsides | 1.17 | 0.00–2.38 | 0.00–2.73 | 0.80 | 0.00–1.96 | 0.00–2.29 | 1.970.00–5.02 |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 | 0.65–2.76 | 0.37–3.03 | 1.81 | 0.69–2.93 | 0.40–3.22 | 3.510.77–6.25 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 1.48 | 0.07–2.89 | 0.00–3.28 | 2.29 | 0.74–3.85 | 0.31–4.28 | 3.770.00–7.56 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
48%
24%
28%
Shots on target
60%
27%
Total shots
73%
20%
Shots in box
48%
23%
28%
Blocked shots
26%
56%
18%
Corners
60%
28%
Fouls
44%
48%
Offsides
45%
30%
25%
Yellow cards
37%
22%
41%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
24%
20%
56%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+