FA Cup· Quarter-finals· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.99 | 1.03–2.95 | 0.77–3.21 | 1.08 | 0.22–1.94 | 0.00–2.19 | 3.080.75–5.40 |
| Shots on target | 5.24 | 3.38–7.09 | 2.88–7.59 | 3.02 | 1.31–4.73 | 0.85–5.20 | 8.263.73–12.79 |
| Total shots | 12.70 | 8.99–16.40 | 7.96–17.43 | 7.86 | 4.48–11.23 | 3.55–12.17 | 20.5511.51–29.60 |
| Shots in box | 7.73 | 5.21–10.24 | 4.35–11.11 | 5.96 | 3.66–8.26 | 2.86–9.06 | 13.697.21–20.17 |
| Blocked shots | 3.25 | 1.67–4.83 | 1.13–5.37 | 2.49 | 1.08–3.91 | 0.59–4.39 | 5.741.72–9.76 |
| Corners | 5.19 | 2.98–7.39 | 2.39–7.99 | 3.23 | 1.26–5.21 | 0.72–5.75 | 8.423.11–13.74 |
| Possession % | 54.02 | 47.70–60.34 | 46.11–61.94 | 45.58 | 39.26–51.90 | 37.66–53.50 | — |
| Passes | 390 | 325–456 | 307–473 | 360 | 296–425 | 278–442 | 751585–916 |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.05 | 67.84–76.27 | 66.53–77.57 | 69.17 | 64.66–73.68 | 63.33–75.01 | — |
| Fouls | 11.36 | 8.50–14.22 | 7.62–15.10 | 12.25 | 9.31–15.20 | 8.39–16.12 | 23.6116.01–31.22 |
| Offsides | 2.21 | 1.00–3.42 | 0.66–3.77 | 1.64 | 0.48–2.80 | 0.15–3.14 | 3.850.80–6.90 |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 | 0.60–2.71 | 0.33–2.98 | 1.59 | 0.47–2.71 | 0.18–3.00 | 3.240.51–5.98 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.04 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.06 | 0.65–3.48 | 0.26–3.86 | 3.15 | 1.59–4.70 | 1.16–5.13 | 5.211.42–9.00 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
58%
21%
20%
Shots on target
72%
17%
Total shots
83%
Shots in box
63%
27%
Blocked shots
54%
16%
30%
Corners
69%
20%
Fouls
39%
53%
Offsides
51%
20%
29%
Yellow cards
40%
23%
37%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
24%
16%
60%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+