FA Cup· Quarter-finals· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
Goalstotal 2.52
1.27home
0.30–2.23 safe0.04–2.49 safer1.25away
0.39–2.11 safe0.14–2.36 saferShots on targettotal 8.41
4.24home
2.38–6.09 safe1.88–6.59 safer4.18away
2.47–5.89 safe2.00–6.35 saferTotal shotstotal 20.84
10.65home
6.95–14.35 safe5.92–15.38 safer10.18away
6.81–13.56 safe5.88–14.49 saferShots in boxtotal 5.70
3.66home
1.14–6.17 safe0.27–7.04 safer2.04away
0.00–4.34 safe0.00–5.14 saferBlocked shotstotal 2.42
1.59home
0.00–3.17 safe0.00–3.70 safer0.83away
0.00–2.25 safe0.00–2.74 saferCornerstotal 8.69
4.58home
2.38–6.79 safe1.78–7.38 safer4.10away
2.13–6.08 safe1.59–6.62 saferPossession %
48.75home
42.43–55.07 safe40.84–56.66 safer50.06away
43.74–56.38 safe42.14–57.97 saferPassestotal 777
363home
298–429 safe281–446 safer413away
349–478 safe331–496 saferPass accuracy %
70.70home
66.48–74.91 safe65.18–76.21 safer71.84away
67.33–76.35 safe66.00–77.68 saferFoulstotal 26.87
13.23home
10.37–16.08 safe9.48–16.97 safer13.65away
10.70–16.59 safe9.78–17.51 saferOffsidestotal 3.30
1.90home
0.69–3.11 safe0.35–3.45 safer1.40away
0.24–2.56 safe0.00–2.90 saferYellow cardstotal 3.39
1.83home
0.77–2.88 safe0.50–3.15 safer1.56away
0.44–2.68 safe0.15–2.97 saferRed cardstotal 0.18
0.11home
0.00–0.27 safe0.00–0.42 safer0.06away
0.00–0.26 safe0.00–0.40 saferGK savestotal 5.12
2.60home
1.18–4.01 safe0.80–4.40 safer2.53away
0.97–4.08 safe0.54–4.51 safer| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 | 0.30–2.23 | 0.04–2.49 | 1.25 | 0.39–2.11 | 0.14–2.36 | 2.520.19–4.85 |
| Shots on target | 4.24 | 2.38–6.09 | 1.88–6.59 | 4.18 | 2.47–5.89 | 2.00–6.35 | 8.413.88–12.95 |
| Total shots | 10.65 | 6.95–14.35 | 5.92–15.38 | 10.18 | 6.81–13.56 | 5.88–14.49 | 20.8411.79–29.88 |
| Shots in box | 3.66 | 1.14–6.17 | 0.27–7.04 | 2.04 | 0.00–4.34 | 0.00–5.14 | 5.700.00–12.18 |
| Blocked shots | 1.59 | 0.00–3.17 | 0.00–3.70 | 0.83 | 0.00–2.25 | 0.00–2.74 | 2.420.00–6.44 |
| Corners | 4.58 | 2.38–6.79 | 1.78–7.38 | 4.10 | 2.13–6.08 | 1.59–6.62 | 8.693.37–14.00 |
| Possession % | 48.75 | 42.43–55.07 | 40.84–56.66 | 50.06 | 43.74–56.38 | 42.14–57.97 | — |
| Passes | 363 | 298–429 | 281–446 | 413 | 349–478 | 331–496 | 777612–942 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.70 | 66.48–74.91 | 65.18–76.21 | 71.84 | 67.33–76.35 | 66.00–77.68 | — |
| Fouls | 13.23 | 10.37–16.08 | 9.48–16.97 | 13.65 | 10.70–16.59 | 9.78–17.51 | 26.8719.27–34.48 |
| Offsides | 1.90 | 0.69–3.11 | 0.35–3.45 | 1.40 | 0.24–2.56 | 0.00–2.90 | 3.300.25–6.35 |
| Yellow cards | 1.83 | 0.77–2.88 | 0.50–3.15 | 1.56 | 0.44–2.68 | 0.15–2.97 | 3.390.65–6.12 |
| Red cards | 0.11 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.180.00–0.82 |
| GK saves | 2.60 | 1.18–4.01 | 0.80–4.40 | 2.53 | 0.97–4.08 | 0.54–4.51 | 5.121.34–8.91 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
37%
27%
36%
Shots on target
44%
14%
42%
Total shots
50%
42%
Shots in box
68%
14%
18%
Blocked shots
55%
25%
20%
Corners
50%
14%
37%
Fouls
43%
49%
Offsides
49%
22%
28%
Yellow cards
44%
22%
33%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
42%
18%
40%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+