FA Cup· Quarter-finals· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
Goalstotal 3.29
1.81home
0.85–2.77 safe0.59–3.03 safer1.48away
0.62–2.34 safe0.37–2.58 saferShots on targettotal 9.28
4.62home
2.76–6.47 safe2.26–6.97 safer4.67away
2.96–6.37 safe2.49–6.84 saferTotal shotstotal 26.77
11.87home
8.17–15.58 safe7.14–16.61 safer14.89away
11.52–18.27 safe10.58–19.20 saferShots in boxtotal 17.39
9.79home
7.28–12.31 safe6.41–13.18 safer7.59away
5.29–9.90 safe4.50–10.69 saferBlocked shotstotal 7.17
3.80home
2.21–5.38 safe1.68–5.92 safer3.37away
1.96–4.79 safe1.47–5.27 saferCornerstotal 9.03
4.09home
1.89–6.30 safe1.29–6.89 safer4.93away
2.96–6.91 safe2.42–7.45 saferPossession %
48.83home
42.52–55.15 safe40.92–56.75 safer50.10away
43.79–56.42 safe42.19–58.02 saferPassestotal 750
365home
300–430 safe282–448 safer385away
321–450 safe303–467 saferPass accuracy %
70.17home
65.95–74.38 safe64.65–75.68 safer69.94away
65.43–74.44 safe64.10–75.77 saferFoulstotal 23.97
11.75home
8.89–14.61 safe8.01–15.49 safer12.22away
9.28–15.17 safe8.36–16.09 saferOffsidestotal 3.58
1.69home
0.49–2.90 safe0.14–3.25 safer1.88away
0.72–3.04 safe0.39–3.38 saferYellow cardstotal 3.51
1.85home
0.80–2.91 safe0.53–3.18 safer1.66away
0.54–2.78 safe0.25–3.07 saferRed cardstotal 0.18
0.10home
0.00–0.26 safe0.00–0.41 safer0.08away
0.00–0.27 safe0.00–0.41 saferGK savestotal 5.77
2.93home
1.51–4.34 safe1.12–4.73 safer2.84away
1.28–4.39 safe0.85–4.82 safer| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.81 | 0.85–2.77 | 0.59–3.03 | 1.48 | 0.62–2.34 | 0.37–2.58 | 3.290.96–5.62 |
| Shots on target | 4.62 | 2.76–6.47 | 2.26–6.97 | 4.67 | 2.96–6.37 | 2.49–6.84 | 9.284.75–13.81 |
| Total shots | 11.87 | 8.17–15.58 | 7.14–16.61 | 14.89 | 11.52–18.27 | 10.58–19.20 | 26.7717.72–35.81 |
| Shots in box | 9.79 | 7.28–12.31 | 6.41–13.18 | 7.59 | 5.29–9.90 | 4.50–10.69 | 17.3910.91–23.87 |
| Blocked shots | 3.80 | 2.21–5.38 | 1.68–5.92 | 3.37 | 1.96–4.79 | 1.47–5.27 | 7.173.15–11.19 |
| Corners | 4.09 | 1.89–6.30 | 1.29–6.89 | 4.93 | 2.96–6.91 | 2.42–7.45 | 9.033.71–14.34 |
| Possession % | 48.83 | 42.52–55.15 | 40.92–56.75 | 50.10 | 43.79–56.42 | 42.19–58.02 | — |
| Passes | 365 | 300–430 | 282–448 | 385 | 321–450 | 303–467 | 750585–915 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.17 | 65.95–74.38 | 64.65–75.68 | 69.94 | 65.43–74.44 | 64.10–75.77 | — |
| Fouls | 11.75 | 8.89–14.61 | 8.01–15.49 | 12.22 | 9.28–15.17 | 8.36–16.09 | 23.9716.37–31.58 |
| Offsides | 1.69 | 0.49–2.90 | 0.14–3.25 | 1.88 | 0.72–3.04 | 0.39–3.38 | 3.580.53–6.62 |
| Yellow cards | 1.85 | 0.80–2.91 | 0.53–3.18 | 1.66 | 0.54–2.78 | 0.25–3.07 | 3.510.77–6.25 |
| Red cards | 0.10 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.180.00–0.83 |
| GK saves | 2.93 | 1.51–4.34 | 1.12–4.73 | 2.84 | 1.28–4.39 | 0.85–4.82 | 5.771.98–9.55 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
46%
23%
32%
Shots on target
43%
13%
44%
Total shots
25%
69%
Shots in box
66%
26%
Blocked shots
49%
15%
36%
Corners
33%
54%
Fouls
42%
50%
Offsides
35%
22%
43%
Yellow cards
43%
22%
35%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+