FA Cup· 3rd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
Goalstotal 3.01
1.90home
0.94–2.86 safe0.68–3.12 safer1.11away
0.25–1.97 safe0.00–2.21 saferShots on targettotal 8.18
4.93home
3.07–6.78 safe2.57–7.28 safer3.26away
1.55–4.97 safe1.08–5.43 saferTotal shotstotal 24.15
14.20home
10.49–17.90 safe9.46–18.93 safer9.95away
6.57–13.33 safe5.64–14.26 saferShots in boxtotal 15.05
9.44home
6.92–11.95 safe6.06–12.82 safer5.61away
3.31–7.92 safe2.52–8.71 saferBlocked shotstotal 6.44
3.74home
2.16–5.33 safe1.62–5.86 safer2.70away
1.29–4.12 safe0.80–4.60 saferCornerstotal 8.55
5.33home
3.13–7.54 safe2.53–8.13 safer3.22away
1.25–5.20 safe0.71–5.74 saferPossession %
55.55home
49.23–61.87 safe47.64–63.46 safer44.93away
38.61–51.25 safe37.02–52.85 saferPassestotal 809
438home
373–504 safe355–521 safer371away
306–435 safe289–453 saferPass accuracy %
74.40home
70.19–78.62 safe68.88–79.92 safer70.77away
66.27–75.28 safe64.94–76.61 saferFoulstotal 27.63
12.26home
9.40–15.12 safe8.52–16.00 safer15.37away
12.42–18.31 safe11.50–19.23 saferOffsidestotal 3.65
1.71home
0.50–2.92 safe0.15–3.26 safer1.94away
0.78–3.11 safe0.45–3.44 saferYellow cardstotal 3.35
1.66home
0.60–2.71 safe0.33–2.98 safer1.69away
0.57–2.81 safe0.28–3.10 saferRed cardstotal 0.11
0.05home
0.00–0.21 safe0.00–0.36 safer0.06away
0.00–0.25 safe0.00–0.40 saferGK savestotal 5.86
2.77home
1.35–4.18 safe0.96–4.57 safer3.09away
1.54–4.65 safe1.11–5.08 safer| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.90 | 0.94–2.86 | 0.68–3.12 | 1.11 | 0.25–1.97 | 0.00–2.21 | 3.010.68–5.33 |
| Shots on target | 4.93 | 3.07–6.78 | 2.57–7.28 | 3.26 | 1.55–4.97 | 1.08–5.43 | 8.183.65–12.71 |
| Total shots | 14.20 | 10.49–17.90 | 9.46–18.93 | 9.95 | 6.57–13.33 | 5.64–14.26 | 24.1515.10–33.19 |
| Shots in box | 9.44 | 6.92–11.95 | 6.06–12.82 | 5.61 | 3.31–7.92 | 2.52–8.71 | 15.058.57–21.53 |
| Blocked shots | 3.74 | 2.16–5.33 | 1.62–5.86 | 2.70 | 1.29–4.12 | 0.80–4.60 | 6.442.42–10.46 |
| Corners | 5.33 | 3.13–7.54 | 2.53–8.13 | 3.22 | 1.25–5.20 | 0.71–5.74 | 8.553.24–13.87 |
| Possession % | 55.55 | 49.23–61.87 | 47.64–63.46 | 44.93 | 38.61–51.25 | 37.02–52.85 | — |
| Passes | 438 | 373–504 | 355–521 | 371 | 306–435 | 289–453 | 809644–974 |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.40 | 70.19–78.62 | 68.88–79.92 | 70.77 | 66.27–75.28 | 64.94–76.61 | — |
| Fouls | 12.26 | 9.40–15.12 | 8.52–16.00 | 15.37 | 12.42–18.31 | 11.50–19.23 | 27.6320.02–35.23 |
| Offsides | 1.71 | 0.50–2.92 | 0.15–3.26 | 1.94 | 0.78–3.11 | 0.45–3.44 | 3.650.60–6.70 |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 | 0.60–2.71 | 0.33–2.98 | 1.69 | 0.57–2.81 | 0.28–3.10 | 3.350.61–6.09 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.77 | 1.35–4.18 | 0.96–4.57 | 3.09 | 1.54–4.65 | 1.11–5.08 | 5.862.07–9.65 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
56%
22%
22%
Shots on target
66%
22%
Total shots
78%
17%
Shots in box
81%
13%
Blocked shots
58%
15%
27%
Corners
71%
18%
Fouls
25%
69%
Offsides
34%
22%
44%
Yellow cards
38%
23%
39%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+