FA Cup· 3rd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
Goalstotal 2.94
1.87home
0.91–2.83 safe0.65–3.09 safer1.07away
0.21–1.93 safe0.00–2.18 saferShots on targettotal 9.28
5.93home
4.07–7.79 safe3.58–8.29 safer3.35away
1.64–5.06 safe1.17–5.52 saferTotal shotstotal 26.09
13.93home
10.23–17.64 safe9.20–18.67 safer12.16away
8.78–15.54 safe7.85–16.47 saferShots in boxtotal 13.93
9.34home
6.83–11.86 safe5.96–12.72 safer4.59away
2.29–6.89 safe1.49–7.69 saferBlocked shotstotal 6.03
3.71home
2.13–5.30 safe1.60–5.83 safer2.32away
0.90–3.73 safe0.42–4.22 saferCornerstotal 8.69
5.18home
2.97–7.38 safe2.38–7.98 safer3.51away
1.53–5.49 safe0.99–6.02 saferPossession %
57.30home
50.98–63.61 safe49.38–65.21 safer42.89away
36.57–49.21 safe34.98–50.81 saferPassestotal 858
498home
432–563 safe415–581 safer361away
296–425 safe279–443 saferPass accuracy %
79.45home
75.23–83.66 safe73.93–84.97 safer68.34away
63.83–72.85 safe62.50–74.18 saferFoulstotal 22.57
11.40home
8.54–14.26 safe7.66–15.14 safer11.17away
8.23–14.12 safe7.31–15.04 saferOffsidestotal 3.88
2.09home
0.88–3.30 safe0.53–3.64 safer1.79away
0.63–2.96 safe0.30–3.29 saferYellow cardstotal 3.20
1.38home
0.32–2.44 safe0.05–2.71 safer1.82away
0.70–2.94 safe0.41–3.23 saferRed cardstotal 0.20
0.10home
0.00–0.25 safe0.00–0.40 safer0.11away
0.00–0.30 safe0.00–0.44 saferGK savestotal 5.74
2.73home
1.31–4.14 safe0.92–4.53 safer3.01away
1.46–4.57 safe1.03–5.00 safer| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.87 | 0.91–2.83 | 0.65–3.09 | 1.07 | 0.21–1.93 | 0.00–2.18 | 2.940.61–5.27 |
| Shots on target | 5.93 | 4.07–7.79 | 3.58–8.29 | 3.35 | 1.64–5.06 | 1.17–5.52 | 9.284.75–13.81 |
| Total shots | 13.93 | 10.23–17.64 | 9.20–18.67 | 12.16 | 8.78–15.54 | 7.85–16.47 | 26.0917.05–35.14 |
| Shots in box | 9.34 | 6.83–11.86 | 5.96–12.72 | 4.59 | 2.29–6.89 | 1.49–7.69 | 13.937.46–20.41 |
| Blocked shots | 3.71 | 2.13–5.30 | 1.60–5.83 | 2.32 | 0.90–3.73 | 0.42–4.22 | 6.032.01–10.05 |
| Corners | 5.18 | 2.97–7.38 | 2.38–7.98 | 3.51 | 1.53–5.49 | 0.99–6.02 | 8.693.37–14.00 |
| Possession % | 57.30 | 50.98–63.61 | 49.38–65.21 | 42.89 | 36.57–49.21 | 34.98–50.81 | — |
| Passes | 498 | 432–563 | 415–581 | 361 | 296–425 | 279–443 | 858693–1023 |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.45 | 75.23–83.66 | 73.93–84.97 | 68.34 | 63.83–72.85 | 62.50–74.18 | — |
| Fouls | 11.40 | 8.54–14.26 | 7.66–15.14 | 11.17 | 8.23–14.12 | 7.31–15.04 | 22.5714.97–30.18 |
| Offsides | 2.09 | 0.88–3.30 | 0.53–3.64 | 1.79 | 0.63–2.96 | 0.30–3.29 | 3.880.83–6.93 |
| Yellow cards | 1.38 | 0.32–2.44 | 0.05–2.71 | 1.82 | 0.70–2.94 | 0.41–3.23 | 3.200.46–5.93 |
| Red cards | 0.10 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.200.00–0.85 |
| GK saves | 2.73 | 1.31–4.14 | 0.92–4.53 | 3.01 | 1.46–4.57 | 1.03–5.00 | 5.741.95–9.53 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
56%
22%
21%
Shots on target
75%
15%
Total shots
60%
33%
Shots in box
88%
Blocked shots
64%
14%
22%
Corners
65%
23%
Fouls
48%
44%
Offsides
45%
21%
34%
Yellow cards
29%
23%
48%
Red cards
83%
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+