FA Cup· 3rd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
Goalstotal 3.52
1.15home
0.19–2.11 safe0.00–2.37 safer2.37away
1.51–3.23 safe1.27–3.48 saferShots on targettotal 11.30
4.46home
2.61–6.32 safe2.11–6.82 safer6.83away
5.13–8.54 safe4.66–9.01 saferTotal shotstotal 29.32
12.87home
9.17–16.58 safe8.14–17.61 safer16.45away
13.07–19.83 safe12.14–20.76 saferShots in boxtotal 14.74
6.67home
4.15–9.19 safe3.29–10.05 safer8.07away
5.77–10.37 safe4.97–11.17 saferBlocked shotstotal 6.07
2.94home
1.35–4.52 safe0.82–5.06 safer3.13away
1.71–4.54 safe1.23–5.03 saferCornerstotal 8.14
3.33home
1.12–5.53 safe0.53–6.13 safer4.82away
2.84–6.80 safe2.30–7.33 saferPossession %
43.33home
37.02–49.65 safe35.42–51.25 safer56.04away
49.72–62.35 safe48.12–63.95 saferPassestotal 835
374home
309–439 safe291–457 safer461away
396–525 safe379–543 saferPass accuracy %
74.43home
70.21–78.64 safe68.91–79.94 safer79.18away
74.68–83.69 safe73.35–85.02 saferFoulstotal 22.42
12.02home
9.16–14.88 safe8.28–15.76 safer10.40away
7.46–13.35 safe6.54–14.27 saferOffsidestotal 4.49
2.36home
1.15–3.56 safe0.80–3.91 safer2.14away
0.97–3.30 safe0.64–3.63 saferYellow cardstotal 3.08
1.67home
0.61–2.72 safe0.34–3.00 safer1.42away
0.30–2.54 safe0.01–2.83 saferRed cardstotal 0.15
0.07home
0.00–0.23 safe0.00–0.38 safer0.07away
0.00–0.27 safe0.00–0.41 saferGK savestotal 6.74
3.92home
2.50–5.33 safe2.12–5.72 safer2.82away
1.27–4.38 safe0.84–4.81 safer| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.15 | 0.19–2.11 | 0.00–2.37 | 2.37 | 1.51–3.23 | 1.27–3.48 | 3.521.19–5.85 |
| Shots on target | 4.46 | 2.61–6.32 | 2.11–6.82 | 6.83 | 5.13–8.54 | 4.66–9.01 | 11.306.77–15.83 |
| Total shots | 12.87 | 9.17–16.58 | 8.14–17.61 | 16.45 | 13.07–19.83 | 12.14–20.76 | 29.3220.28–38.37 |
| Shots in box | 6.67 | 4.15–9.19 | 3.29–10.05 | 8.07 | 5.77–10.37 | 4.97–11.17 | 14.748.26–21.22 |
| Blocked shots | 2.94 | 1.35–4.52 | 0.82–5.06 | 3.13 | 1.71–4.54 | 1.23–5.03 | 6.072.05–10.09 |
| Corners | 3.33 | 1.12–5.53 | 0.53–6.13 | 4.82 | 2.84–6.80 | 2.30–7.33 | 8.142.83–13.46 |
| Possession % | 43.33 | 37.02–49.65 | 35.42–51.25 | 56.04 | 49.72–62.35 | 48.12–63.95 | — |
| Passes | 374 | 309–439 | 291–457 | 461 | 396–525 | 379–543 | 835670–1000 |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.43 | 70.21–78.64 | 68.91–79.94 | 79.18 | 74.68–83.69 | 73.35–85.02 | — |
| Fouls | 12.02 | 9.16–14.88 | 8.28–15.76 | 10.40 | 7.46–13.35 | 6.54–14.27 | 22.4214.82–30.03 |
| Offsides | 2.36 | 1.15–3.56 | 0.80–3.91 | 2.14 | 0.97–3.30 | 0.64–3.63 | 4.491.44–7.54 |
| Yellow cards | 1.67 | 0.61–2.72 | 0.34–3.00 | 1.42 | 0.30–2.54 | 0.01–2.83 | 3.080.35–5.82 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 3.92 | 2.50–5.33 | 2.12–5.72 | 2.82 | 1.27–4.38 | 0.84–4.81 | 6.742.95–10.53 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
17%
18%
65%
Shots on target
19%
71%
Total shots
23%
72%
Shots in box
31%
59%
Blocked shots
39%
17%
45%
Corners
24%
63%
Fouls
59%
33%
Offsides
44%
19%
36%
Yellow cards
44%
24%
33%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
59%
14%
27%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+