FA Cup· 3rd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
Goalstotal 2.80
1.35home
0.39–2.31 safe0.13–2.57 safer1.45away
0.59–2.31 safe0.34–2.56 saferShots on targettotal 9.37
4.49home
2.63–6.34 safe2.13–6.84 safer4.88away
3.18–6.59 safe2.71–7.06 saferTotal shotstotal 24.80
12.21home
8.51–15.92 safe7.48–16.95 safer12.58away
9.21–15.96 safe8.27–16.89 saferShots in boxtotal 14.03
5.46home
2.94–7.98 safe2.08–8.84 safer8.57away
6.27–10.87 safe5.47–11.66 saferBlocked shotstotal 6.98
3.35home
1.77–4.93 safe1.23–5.47 safer3.63away
2.21–5.04 safe1.72–5.53 saferCornerstotal 8.47
3.94home
1.73–6.14 safe1.13–6.74 safer4.54away
2.56–6.52 safe2.02–7.05 saferPossession %
44.96home
38.64–51.27 safe37.04–52.87 safer53.08away
46.76–59.40 safe45.17–61.00 saferPassestotal 759
352home
287–418 safe269–435 safer407away
342–471 safe324–489 saferPass accuracy %
62.95home
58.73–67.16 safe57.43–68.46 safer71.10away
66.59–75.61 safe65.26–76.94 saferFoulstotal 24.45
11.96home
9.10–14.82 safe8.22–15.70 safer12.49away
9.54–15.43 safe8.62–16.35 saferOffsidestotal 3.65
1.79home
0.58–3.00 safe0.24–3.34 safer1.86away
0.70–3.02 safe0.37–3.36 saferYellow cardstotal 3.23
1.64home
0.58–2.69 safe0.31–2.96 safer1.60away
0.48–2.72 safe0.19–3.01 saferRed cardstotal 0.10
0.06home
0.00–0.21 safe0.00–0.37 safer0.04away
0.00–0.23 safe0.00–0.38 saferGK savestotal 5.77
2.68home
1.26–4.09 safe0.87–4.48 safer3.09away
1.54–4.65 safe1.11–5.08 safer| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 | 0.39–2.31 | 0.13–2.57 | 1.45 | 0.59–2.31 | 0.34–2.56 | 2.800.47–5.13 |
| Shots on target | 4.49 | 2.63–6.34 | 2.13–6.84 | 4.88 | 3.18–6.59 | 2.71–7.06 | 9.374.84–13.90 |
| Total shots | 12.21 | 8.51–15.92 | 7.48–16.95 | 12.58 | 9.21–15.96 | 8.27–16.89 | 24.8015.75–33.84 |
| Shots in box | 5.46 | 2.94–7.98 | 2.08–8.84 | 8.57 | 6.27–10.87 | 5.47–11.66 | 14.037.55–20.51 |
| Blocked shots | 3.35 | 1.77–4.93 | 1.23–5.47 | 3.63 | 2.21–5.04 | 1.72–5.53 | 6.982.96–11.00 |
| Corners | 3.94 | 1.73–6.14 | 1.13–6.74 | 4.54 | 2.56–6.52 | 2.02–7.05 | 8.473.16–13.79 |
| Possession % | 44.96 | 38.64–51.27 | 37.04–52.87 | 53.08 | 46.76–59.40 | 45.17–61.00 | — |
| Passes | 352 | 287–418 | 269–435 | 407 | 342–471 | 324–489 | 759594–924 |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.95 | 58.73–67.16 | 57.43–68.46 | 71.10 | 66.59–75.61 | 65.26–76.94 | — |
| Fouls | 11.96 | 9.10–14.82 | 8.22–15.70 | 12.49 | 9.54–15.43 | 8.62–16.35 | 24.4516.84–32.05 |
| Offsides | 1.79 | 0.58–3.00 | 0.24–3.34 | 1.86 | 0.70–3.02 | 0.37–3.36 | 3.650.60–6.70 |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 | 0.58–2.69 | 0.31–2.96 | 1.60 | 0.48–2.72 | 0.19–3.01 | 3.230.50–5.97 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.04 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.68 | 1.26–4.09 | 0.87–4.48 | 3.09 | 1.54–4.65 | 1.11–5.08 | 5.771.98–9.56 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
35%
25%
40%
Shots on target
38%
13%
49%
Total shots
43%
49%
Shots in box
17%
76%
Blocked shots
38%
15%
46%
Corners
35%
14%
51%
Fouls
42%
50%
Offsides
38%
22%
41%
Yellow cards
39%
23%
38%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+