FA Cup· 3rd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
Goalstotal 3.14
1.87home
0.91–2.83 safe0.65–3.09 safer1.27away
0.41–2.13 safe0.16–2.38 saferShots on targettotal 8.86
5.20home
3.35–7.06 safe2.85–7.56 safer3.66away
1.95–5.37 safe1.48–5.83 saferTotal shotstotal 25.70
14.31home
10.61–18.02 safe9.58–19.05 safer11.38away
8.01–14.76 safe7.07–15.69 saferShots in boxtotal 12.08
8.79home
6.27–11.30 safe5.41–12.17 safer3.29away
0.99–5.59 safe0.19–6.39 saferBlocked shotstotal 5.80
3.47home
1.88–5.05 safe1.35–5.58 safer2.33away
0.91–3.74 safe0.43–4.23 saferCornerstotal 8.46
4.72home
2.52–6.93 safe1.92–7.52 safer3.74away
1.76–5.72 safe1.22–6.25 saferPossession %
56.22home
49.90–62.54 safe48.31–64.14 safer45.01away
38.69–51.33 safe37.09–52.92 saferPassestotal 854
493home
428–558 safe410–576 safer361away
296–425 safe279–443 saferPass accuracy %
78.45home
74.24–82.67 safe72.94–83.97 safer70.05away
65.55–74.56 safe64.21–75.89 saferFoulstotal 22.49
11.34home
8.48–14.20 safe7.60–15.08 safer11.15away
8.20–14.09 safe7.28–15.01 saferOffsidestotal 4.14
2.18home
0.97–3.39 safe0.62–3.73 safer1.96away
0.80–3.12 safe0.47–3.46 saferYellow cardstotal 3.34
1.51home
0.45–2.56 safe0.18–2.84 safer1.83away
0.71–2.95 safe0.42–3.24 saferRed cardstotal 0.20
0.11home
0.00–0.27 safe0.00–0.42 safer0.09away
0.00–0.28 safe0.00–0.43 saferGK savestotal 5.87
2.90home
1.49–4.32 safe1.10–4.71 safer2.96away
1.41–4.52 safe0.98–4.95 safer| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.87 | 0.91–2.83 | 0.65–3.09 | 1.27 | 0.41–2.13 | 0.16–2.38 | 3.140.81–5.47 |
| Shots on target | 5.20 | 3.35–7.06 | 2.85–7.56 | 3.66 | 1.95–5.37 | 1.48–5.83 | 8.864.33–13.39 |
| Total shots | 14.31 | 10.61–18.02 | 9.58–19.05 | 11.38 | 8.01–14.76 | 7.07–15.69 | 25.7016.66–34.74 |
| Shots in box | 8.79 | 6.27–11.30 | 5.41–12.17 | 3.29 | 0.99–5.59 | 0.19–6.39 | 12.085.60–18.56 |
| Blocked shots | 3.47 | 1.88–5.05 | 1.35–5.58 | 2.33 | 0.91–3.74 | 0.43–4.23 | 5.801.78–9.81 |
| Corners | 4.72 | 2.52–6.93 | 1.92–7.52 | 3.74 | 1.76–5.72 | 1.22–6.25 | 8.463.15–13.78 |
| Possession % | 56.22 | 49.90–62.54 | 48.31–64.14 | 45.01 | 38.69–51.33 | 37.09–52.92 | — |
| Passes | 493 | 428–558 | 410–576 | 361 | 296–425 | 279–443 | 854689–1019 |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.45 | 74.24–82.67 | 72.94–83.97 | 70.05 | 65.55–74.56 | 64.21–75.89 | — |
| Fouls | 11.34 | 8.48–14.20 | 7.60–15.08 | 11.15 | 8.20–14.09 | 7.28–15.01 | 22.4914.88–30.09 |
| Offsides | 2.18 | 0.97–3.39 | 0.62–3.73 | 1.96 | 0.80–3.12 | 0.47–3.46 | 4.141.09–7.19 |
| Yellow cards | 1.51 | 0.45–2.56 | 0.18–2.84 | 1.83 | 0.71–2.95 | 0.42–3.24 | 3.340.60–6.08 |
| Red cards | 0.11 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.200.00–0.85 |
| GK saves | 2.90 | 1.49–4.32 | 1.10–4.71 | 2.96 | 1.41–4.52 | 0.98–4.95 | 5.872.08–9.66 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
51%
23%
26%
Shots on target
64%
24%
Total shots
68%
25%
Shots in box
93%
Blocked shots
60%
15%
24%
Corners
56%
13%
30%
Fouls
47%
44%
Offsides
44%
20%
36%
Yellow cards
32%
23%
46%
Red cards
82%
GK saves
41%
17%
43%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+