FA Cup· 3rd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
Goalstotal 2.97
1.39home
0.43–2.35 safe0.17–2.61 safer1.58away
0.72–2.44 safe0.48–2.69 saferShots on targettotal 8.88
4.61home
2.76–6.47 safe2.26–6.97 safer4.27away
2.56–5.97 safe2.09–6.44 saferTotal shotstotal 23.54
12.76home
9.06–16.47 safe8.03–17.50 safer10.77away
7.39–14.15 safe6.46–15.08 saferShots in boxtotal 13.51
4.88home
2.36–7.40 safe1.50–8.26 safer8.62away
6.32–10.93 safe5.53–11.72 saferBlocked shotstotal 6.89
3.34home
1.76–4.93 safe1.23–5.46 safer3.55away
2.13–4.96 safe1.64–5.45 saferCornerstotal 9.16
5.19home
2.98–7.40 safe2.39–7.99 safer3.97away
1.99–5.95 safe1.46–6.49 saferPossession %
47.02home
40.70–53.34 safe39.11–54.93 safer53.88away
47.56–60.20 safe45.96–61.79 saferPassestotal 774
353home
288–418 safe270–436 safer420away
356–485 safe338–503 saferPass accuracy %
61.58home
57.36–65.79 safe56.06–67.10 safer70.53away
66.02–75.04 safe64.69–76.37 saferFoulstotal 25.18
12.30home
9.44–15.16 safe8.56–16.04 safer12.88away
9.94–15.83 safe9.02–16.75 saferOffsidestotal 3.38
1.64home
0.43–2.85 safe0.09–3.20 safer1.74away
0.58–2.91 safe0.25–3.24 saferYellow cardstotal 3.07
1.40home
0.35–2.46 safe0.08–2.73 safer1.67away
0.55–2.79 safe0.26–3.08 saferRed cardstotal 0.13
0.08home
0.00–0.23 safe0.00–0.39 safer0.05away
0.00–0.24 safe0.00–0.38 saferGK savestotal 5.04
2.18home
0.77–3.60 safe0.38–3.99 safer2.86away
1.31–4.42 safe0.88–4.85 safer| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.39 | 0.43–2.35 | 0.17–2.61 | 1.58 | 0.72–2.44 | 0.48–2.69 | 2.970.64–5.30 |
| Shots on target | 4.61 | 2.76–6.47 | 2.26–6.97 | 4.27 | 2.56–5.97 | 2.09–6.44 | 8.884.35–13.41 |
| Total shots | 12.76 | 9.06–16.47 | 8.03–17.50 | 10.77 | 7.39–14.15 | 6.46–15.08 | 23.5414.49–32.58 |
| Shots in box | 4.88 | 2.36–7.40 | 1.50–8.26 | 8.62 | 6.32–10.93 | 5.53–11.72 | 13.517.03–19.98 |
| Blocked shots | 3.34 | 1.76–4.93 | 1.23–5.46 | 3.55 | 2.13–4.96 | 1.64–5.45 | 6.892.87–10.91 |
| Corners | 5.19 | 2.98–7.40 | 2.39–7.99 | 3.97 | 1.99–5.95 | 1.46–6.49 | 9.163.85–14.48 |
| Possession % | 47.02 | 40.70–53.34 | 39.11–54.93 | 53.88 | 47.56–60.20 | 45.96–61.79 | — |
| Passes | 353 | 288–418 | 270–436 | 420 | 356–485 | 338–503 | 774608–939 |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.58 | 57.36–65.79 | 56.06–67.10 | 70.53 | 66.02–75.04 | 64.69–76.37 | — |
| Fouls | 12.30 | 9.44–15.16 | 8.56–16.04 | 12.88 | 9.94–15.83 | 9.02–16.75 | 25.1817.58–32.79 |
| Offsides | 1.64 | 0.43–2.85 | 0.09–3.20 | 1.74 | 0.58–2.91 | 0.25–3.24 | 3.380.34–6.43 |
| Yellow cards | 1.40 | 0.35–2.46 | 0.08–2.73 | 1.67 | 0.55–2.79 | 0.26–3.08 | 3.070.33–5.81 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.18 | 0.77–3.60 | 0.38–3.99 | 2.86 | 1.31–4.42 | 0.88–4.85 | 5.041.25–8.83 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
34%
24%
42%
Shots on target
48%
14%
39%
Total shots
62%
30%
Shots in box
81%
Blocked shots
39%
15%
45%
Corners
59%
28%
Fouls
41%
51%
Offsides
37%
23%
41%
Yellow cards
32%
24%
44%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
30%
18%
53%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+