FA Cup· 3rd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
Goalstotal 2.69
1.50home
0.53–2.46 safe0.27–2.72 safer1.19away
0.33–2.05 safe0.09–2.30 saferShots on targettotal 9.95
5.55home
3.70–7.41 safe3.20–7.91 safer4.39away
2.69–6.10 safe2.22–6.57 saferTotal shotstotal 26.08
13.22home
9.51–16.92 safe8.48–17.95 safer12.86away
9.48–16.24 safe8.55–17.17 saferShots in boxtotal 15.02
6.40home
3.89–8.92 safe3.02–9.78 safer8.62away
6.32–10.92 safe5.52–11.72 saferBlocked shotstotal 6.65
3.26home
1.67–4.84 safe1.14–5.38 safer3.39away
1.98–4.81 safe1.49–5.29 saferCornerstotal 8.56
4.06home
1.86–6.27 safe1.26–6.86 safer4.50away
2.52–6.47 safe1.98–7.01 saferPossession %
49.07home
42.76–55.39 safe41.16–56.99 safer50.78away
44.46–57.10 safe42.86–58.69 saferPassestotal 734
365home
300–430 safe282–448 safer369away
304–434 safe287–451 saferPass accuracy %
66.63home
62.42–70.85 safe61.12–72.15 safer70.69away
66.18–75.20 safe64.85–76.53 saferFoulstotal 24.40
11.89home
9.04–14.75 safe8.15–15.64 safer12.51away
9.56–15.45 safe8.64–16.37 saferOffsidestotal 3.55
1.69home
0.49–2.90 safe0.14–3.25 safer1.86away
0.69–3.02 safe0.36–3.35 saferYellow cardstotal 3.09
1.41home
0.35–2.46 safe0.08–2.74 safer1.68away
0.56–2.80 safe0.27–3.09 saferRed cardstotal 0.11
0.06home
0.00–0.21 safe0.00–0.37 safer0.05away
0.00–0.24 safe0.00–0.39 saferGK savestotal 5.56
2.47home
1.06–3.89 safe0.67–4.27 safer3.09away
1.54–4.65 safe1.11–5.08 safer| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 | 0.53–2.46 | 0.27–2.72 | 1.19 | 0.33–2.05 | 0.09–2.30 | 2.690.36–5.02 |
| Shots on target | 5.55 | 3.70–7.41 | 3.20–7.91 | 4.39 | 2.69–6.10 | 2.22–6.57 | 9.955.41–14.48 |
| Total shots | 13.22 | 9.51–16.92 | 8.48–17.95 | 12.86 | 9.48–16.24 | 8.55–17.17 | 26.0817.03–35.12 |
| Shots in box | 6.40 | 3.89–8.92 | 3.02–9.78 | 8.62 | 6.32–10.92 | 5.52–11.72 | 15.028.55–21.50 |
| Blocked shots | 3.26 | 1.67–4.84 | 1.14–5.38 | 3.39 | 1.98–4.81 | 1.49–5.29 | 6.652.63–10.67 |
| Corners | 4.06 | 1.86–6.27 | 1.26–6.86 | 4.50 | 2.52–6.47 | 1.98–7.01 | 8.563.24–13.88 |
| Possession % | 49.07 | 42.76–55.39 | 41.16–56.99 | 50.78 | 44.46–57.10 | 42.86–58.69 | — |
| Passes | 365 | 300–430 | 282–448 | 369 | 304–434 | 287–451 | 734569–899 |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.63 | 62.42–70.85 | 61.12–72.15 | 70.69 | 66.18–75.20 | 64.85–76.53 | — |
| Fouls | 11.89 | 9.04–14.75 | 8.15–15.64 | 12.51 | 9.56–15.45 | 8.64–16.37 | 24.4016.79–32.01 |
| Offsides | 1.69 | 0.49–2.90 | 0.14–3.25 | 1.86 | 0.69–3.02 | 0.36–3.35 | 3.550.50–6.60 |
| Yellow cards | 1.41 | 0.35–2.46 | 0.08–2.74 | 1.68 | 0.56–2.80 | 0.27–3.09 | 3.090.35–5.82 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.47 | 1.06–3.89 | 0.67–4.27 | 3.09 | 1.54–4.65 | 1.11–5.08 | 5.561.77–9.35 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
44%
26%
30%
Shots on target
58%
30%
Total shots
49%
43%
Shots in box
24%
67%
Blocked shots
40%
16%
44%
Corners
37%
14%
49%
Fouls
41%
51%
Offsides
36%
22%
42%
Yellow cards
32%
24%
44%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
31%
17%
52%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+