FA Cup· 3rd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
Goalstotal 3.15
2.08home
1.11–3.04 safe0.85–3.30 safer1.08away
0.22–1.94 safe0.00–2.18 saferShots on targettotal 8.54
5.09home
3.24–6.95 safe2.74–7.45 safer3.45away
1.74–5.16 safe1.28–5.63 saferTotal shotstotal 28.54
16.70home
12.99–20.40 safe11.96–21.43 safer11.84away
8.47–15.22 safe7.54–16.15 saferShots in boxtotal 15.47
9.75home
7.23–12.26 safe6.36–13.13 safer5.72away
3.42–8.02 safe2.63–8.82 saferBlocked shotstotal 6.55
3.82home
2.24–5.41 safe1.70–5.94 safer2.73away
1.31–4.14 safe0.83–4.63 saferCornerstotal 8.03
4.49home
2.29–6.70 safe1.69–7.29 safer3.54away
1.56–5.52 safe1.03–6.06 saferPossession %
56.61home
50.29–62.93 safe48.70–64.53 safer44.55away
38.23–50.87 safe36.63–52.47 saferPassestotal 797
459home
394–524 safe376–542 safer338away
273–402 safe256–420 saferPass accuracy %
76.49home
72.27–80.70 safe70.97–82.00 safer67.07away
62.57–71.58 safe61.24–72.91 saferFoulstotal 22.58
11.28home
8.42–14.14 safe7.54–15.02 safer11.30away
8.36–14.25 safe7.44–15.17 saferOffsidestotal 3.36
1.62home
0.41–2.83 safe0.07–3.17 safer1.74away
0.58–2.91 safe0.25–3.24 saferYellow cardstotal 3.17
1.56home
0.50–2.61 safe0.23–2.88 safer1.62away
0.49–2.74 safe0.20–3.03 saferRed cardstotal 0.18
0.10home
0.00–0.25 safe0.00–0.41 safer0.08away
0.00–0.28 safe0.00–0.42 saferGK savestotal 5.66
2.70home
1.29–4.12 safe0.90–4.51 safer2.96away
1.41–4.51 safe0.97–4.94 safer| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.08 | 1.11–3.04 | 0.85–3.30 | 1.08 | 0.22–1.94 | 0.00–2.18 | 3.150.82–5.48 |
| Shots on target | 5.09 | 3.24–6.95 | 2.74–7.45 | 3.45 | 1.74–5.16 | 1.28–5.63 | 8.544.01–13.07 |
| Total shots | 16.70 | 12.99–20.40 | 11.96–21.43 | 11.84 | 8.47–15.22 | 7.54–16.15 | 28.5419.50–37.58 |
| Shots in box | 9.75 | 7.23–12.26 | 6.36–13.13 | 5.72 | 3.42–8.02 | 2.63–8.82 | 15.478.99–21.95 |
| Blocked shots | 3.82 | 2.24–5.41 | 1.70–5.94 | 2.73 | 1.31–4.14 | 0.83–4.63 | 6.552.53–10.57 |
| Corners | 4.49 | 2.29–6.70 | 1.69–7.29 | 3.54 | 1.56–5.52 | 1.03–6.06 | 8.032.72–13.35 |
| Possession % | 56.61 | 50.29–62.93 | 48.70–64.53 | 44.55 | 38.23–50.87 | 36.63–52.47 | — |
| Passes | 459 | 394–524 | 376–542 | 338 | 273–402 | 256–420 | 797632–962 |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.49 | 72.27–80.70 | 70.97–82.00 | 67.07 | 62.57–71.58 | 61.24–72.91 | — |
| Fouls | 11.28 | 8.42–14.14 | 7.54–15.02 | 11.30 | 8.36–14.25 | 7.44–15.17 | 22.5814.98–30.19 |
| Offsides | 1.62 | 0.41–2.83 | 0.07–3.17 | 1.74 | 0.58–2.91 | 0.25–3.24 | 3.360.31–6.41 |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 | 0.50–2.61 | 0.23–2.88 | 1.62 | 0.49–2.74 | 0.20–3.03 | 3.170.43–5.91 |
| Red cards | 0.10 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.180.00–0.82 |
| GK saves | 2.70 | 1.29–4.12 | 0.90–4.51 | 2.96 | 1.41–4.51 | 0.97–4.94 | 5.661.87–9.45 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
60%
21%
19%
Shots on target
65%
23%
Total shots
79%
16%
Shots in box
82%
Blocked shots
59%
15%
26%
Corners
56%
14%
30%
Fouls
46%
46%
Offsides
36%
23%
41%
Yellow cards
37%
24%
39%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+