FA Cup· 3rd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
Goalstotal 2.69
1.40home
0.44–2.37 safe0.18–2.63 safer1.28away
0.43–2.14 safe0.18–2.39 saferShots on targettotal 6.12
3.76home
1.90–5.62 safe1.41–6.12 safer2.36away
0.65–4.07 safe0.18–4.53 saferTotal shotstotal 21.23
11.16home
7.46–14.87 safe6.43–15.90 safer10.07away
6.69–13.44 safe5.76–14.37 saferShots in boxtotal 9.26
5.82home
3.30–8.33 safe2.43–9.20 safer3.44away
1.14–5.74 safe0.34–6.54 saferBlocked shotstotal 4.16
2.56home
0.98–4.15 safe0.44–4.68 safer1.59away
0.18–3.01 safe0.00–3.49 saferCornerstotal 9.50
5.06home
2.85–7.26 safe2.26–7.86 safer4.44away
2.46–6.42 safe1.92–6.96 saferPossession %
50.76home
44.44–57.08 safe42.85–58.67 safer48.88away
42.56–55.19 safe40.96–56.79 saferPassestotal 778
394home
328–459 safe311–477 safer385away
320–449 safe303–467 saferPass accuracy %
70.80home
66.58–75.01 safe65.28–76.31 safer69.91away
65.41–74.42 safe64.08–75.75 saferFoulstotal 21.99
10.85home
8.00–13.71 safe7.11–14.60 safer11.14away
8.19–14.08 safe7.28–15.00 saferOffsidestotal 4.04
2.34home
1.13–3.55 safe0.79–3.89 safer1.70away
0.53–2.86 safe0.20–3.19 saferYellow cardstotal 3.27
1.57home
0.51–2.62 safe0.24–2.89 safer1.70away
0.58–2.82 safe0.29–3.11 saferRed cardstotal 0.21
0.11home
0.00–0.26 safe0.00–0.41 safer0.10away
0.00–0.30 safe0.00–0.44 saferGK savestotal 5.49
2.48home
1.07–3.90 safe0.68–4.29 safer3.00away
1.45–4.55 safe1.01–4.99 safer| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 | 0.44–2.37 | 0.18–2.63 | 1.28 | 0.43–2.14 | 0.18–2.39 | 2.690.36–5.02 |
| Shots on target | 3.76 | 1.90–5.62 | 1.41–6.12 | 2.36 | 0.65–4.07 | 0.18–4.53 | 6.121.59–10.65 |
| Total shots | 11.16 | 7.46–14.87 | 6.43–15.90 | 10.07 | 6.69–13.44 | 5.76–14.37 | 21.2312.18–30.27 |
| Shots in box | 5.82 | 3.30–8.33 | 2.43–9.20 | 3.44 | 1.14–5.74 | 0.34–6.54 | 9.262.78–15.74 |
| Blocked shots | 2.56 | 0.98–4.15 | 0.44–4.68 | 1.59 | 0.18–3.01 | 0.00–3.49 | 4.160.14–8.17 |
| Corners | 5.06 | 2.85–7.26 | 2.26–7.86 | 4.44 | 2.46–6.42 | 1.92–6.96 | 9.504.18–14.81 |
| Possession % | 50.76 | 44.44–57.08 | 42.85–58.67 | 48.88 | 42.56–55.19 | 40.96–56.79 | — |
| Passes | 394 | 328–459 | 311–477 | 385 | 320–449 | 303–467 | 778613–944 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.80 | 66.58–75.01 | 65.28–76.31 | 69.91 | 65.41–74.42 | 64.08–75.75 | — |
| Fouls | 10.85 | 8.00–13.71 | 7.11–14.60 | 11.14 | 8.19–14.08 | 7.28–15.00 | 21.9914.39–29.60 |
| Offsides | 2.34 | 1.13–3.55 | 0.79–3.89 | 1.70 | 0.53–2.86 | 0.20–3.19 | 4.040.99–7.09 |
| Yellow cards | 1.57 | 0.51–2.62 | 0.24–2.89 | 1.70 | 0.58–2.82 | 0.29–3.11 | 3.270.53–6.01 |
| Red cards | 0.11 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.210.00–0.85 |
| GK saves | 2.48 | 1.07–3.90 | 0.68–4.29 | 3.00 | 1.45–4.55 | 1.01–4.99 | 5.491.70–9.27 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
40%
26%
34%
Shots on target
64%
14%
22%
Total shots
55%
36%
Shots in box
73%
17%
Blocked shots
59%
18%
23%
Corners
51%
36%
Fouls
43%
48%
Offsides
52%
20%
28%
Yellow cards
36%
23%
41%
Red cards
82%
GK saves
33%
17%
50%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+