FA Cup· 3rd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
Goalstotal 3.08
1.65home
0.69–2.61 safe0.43–2.87 safer1.43away
0.57–2.29 safe0.32–2.54 saferShots on targettotal 9.86
5.96home
4.11–7.82 safe3.61–8.32 safer3.90away
2.19–5.61 safe1.72–6.07 saferTotal shotstotal 25.11
14.87home
11.17–18.58 safe10.14–19.61 safer10.24away
6.86–13.62 safe5.93–14.55 saferShots in boxtotal 15.55
8.25home
5.73–10.76 safe4.87–11.63 safer7.30away
5.00–9.60 safe4.20–10.40 saferBlocked shotstotal 7.05
3.79home
2.20–5.37 safe1.67–5.91 safer3.26away
1.85–4.68 safe1.36–5.16 saferCornerstotal 8.55
4.59home
2.39–6.80 safe1.79–7.39 safer3.96away
1.98–5.94 safe1.44–6.48 saferPossession %
46.51home
40.19–52.82 safe38.59–54.42 safer53.21away
46.89–59.53 safe45.29–61.13 saferPassestotal 831
378home
312–443 safe295–461 safer453away
389–518 safe371–535 saferPass accuracy %
72.26home
68.04–76.48 safe66.74–77.78 safer74.54away
70.03–79.04 safe68.70–80.37 saferFoulstotal 24.24
11.73home
8.88–14.59 safe7.99–15.48 safer12.50away
9.56–15.45 safe8.64–16.36 saferOffsidestotal 3.33
1.60home
0.39–2.81 safe0.05–3.15 safer1.73away
0.57–2.89 safe0.23–3.23 saferYellow cardstotal 2.84
1.28home
0.23–2.34 safe0.00–2.61 safer1.55away
0.43–2.67 safe0.14–2.96 saferRed cardstotal 0.10
0.06home
0.00–0.21 safe0.00–0.36 safer0.05away
0.00–0.24 safe0.00–0.38 saferGK savestotal 5.12
2.19home
0.78–3.61 safe0.39–4.00 safer2.92away
1.37–4.48 safe0.94–4.91 safer| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.65 | 0.69–2.61 | 0.43–2.87 | 1.43 | 0.57–2.29 | 0.32–2.54 | 3.080.75–5.41 |
| Shots on target | 5.96 | 4.11–7.82 | 3.61–8.32 | 3.90 | 2.19–5.61 | 1.72–6.07 | 9.865.33–14.39 |
| Total shots | 14.87 | 11.17–18.58 | 10.14–19.61 | 10.24 | 6.86–13.62 | 5.93–14.55 | 25.1116.06–34.15 |
| Shots in box | 8.25 | 5.73–10.76 | 4.87–11.63 | 7.30 | 5.00–9.60 | 4.20–10.40 | 15.559.07–22.03 |
| Blocked shots | 3.79 | 2.20–5.37 | 1.67–5.91 | 3.26 | 1.85–4.68 | 1.36–5.16 | 7.053.03–11.07 |
| Corners | 4.59 | 2.39–6.80 | 1.79–7.39 | 3.96 | 1.98–5.94 | 1.44–6.48 | 8.553.24–13.87 |
| Possession % | 46.51 | 40.19–52.82 | 38.59–54.42 | 53.21 | 46.89–59.53 | 45.29–61.13 | — |
| Passes | 378 | 312–443 | 295–461 | 453 | 389–518 | 371–535 | 831666–996 |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.26 | 68.04–76.48 | 66.74–77.78 | 74.54 | 70.03–79.04 | 68.70–80.37 | — |
| Fouls | 11.73 | 8.88–14.59 | 7.99–15.48 | 12.50 | 9.56–15.45 | 8.64–16.36 | 24.2416.63–31.84 |
| Offsides | 1.60 | 0.39–2.81 | 0.05–3.15 | 1.73 | 0.57–2.89 | 0.23–3.23 | 3.330.28–6.38 |
| Yellow cards | 1.28 | 0.23–2.34 | 0.00–2.61 | 1.55 | 0.43–2.67 | 0.14–2.96 | 2.840.10–5.57 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.100.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.19 | 0.78–3.61 | 0.39–4.00 | 2.92 | 1.37–4.48 | 0.94–4.91 | 5.121.33–8.91 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
43%
24%
33%
Shots on target
69%
20%
Total shots
80%
15%
Shots in box
54%
36%
Blocked shots
50%
15%
35%
Corners
52%
14%
35%
Fouls
40%
52%
Offsides
36%
23%
41%
Yellow cards
32%
25%
44%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
29%
17%
54%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+