FA Cup· 3rd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
Goalstotal 2.76
1.61home
0.65–2.57 safe0.39–2.83 safer1.15away
0.29–2.01 safe0.05–2.26 saferShots on targettotal 9.61
6.24home
4.39–8.10 safe3.89–8.60 safer3.36away
1.66–5.07 safe1.19–5.54 saferTotal shotstotal 22.16
13.03home
9.33–16.73 safe8.30–17.76 safer9.13away
5.75–12.51 safe4.82–13.44 saferShots in boxtotal 16.48
10.61home
8.09–13.13 safe7.23–13.99 safer5.87away
3.57–8.17 safe2.77–8.97 saferBlocked shotstotal 6.68
3.96home
2.38–5.55 safe1.84–6.08 safer2.72away
1.31–4.14 safe0.82–4.62 saferCornerstotal 9.10
4.91home
2.70–7.11 safe2.11–7.71 safer4.20away
2.22–6.18 safe1.68–6.71 saferPossession %
58.01home
51.69–64.33 safe50.10–65.92 safer42.79away
36.47–49.11 safe34.87–50.71 saferPassestotal 765
462home
397–527 safe379–545 safer303away
239–368 safe221–386 saferPass accuracy %
76.68home
72.47–80.90 safe71.16–82.20 safer65.70away
61.19–70.20 safe59.86–71.53 saferFoulstotal 23.07
11.33home
8.47–14.18 safe7.58–15.07 safer11.75away
8.80–14.69 safe7.88–15.61 saferOffsidestotal 3.81
2.02home
0.81–3.22 safe0.46–3.57 safer1.79away
0.63–2.95 safe0.30–3.29 saferYellow cardstotal 3.24
1.47home
0.41–2.52 safe0.14–2.79 safer1.78away
0.65–2.90 safe0.36–3.19 saferRed cardstotal 0.14
0.07home
0.00–0.22 safe0.00–0.38 safer0.07away
0.00–0.26 safe0.00–0.41 saferGK savestotal 5.49
2.67home
1.25–4.08 safe0.86–4.47 safer2.82away
1.27–4.38 safe0.84–4.81 safer| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.61 | 0.65–2.57 | 0.39–2.83 | 1.15 | 0.29–2.01 | 0.05–2.26 | 2.760.43–5.09 |
| Shots on target | 6.24 | 4.39–8.10 | 3.89–8.60 | 3.36 | 1.66–5.07 | 1.19–5.54 | 9.615.07–14.14 |
| Total shots | 13.03 | 9.33–16.73 | 8.30–17.76 | 9.13 | 5.75–12.51 | 4.82–13.44 | 22.1613.12–31.21 |
| Shots in box | 10.61 | 8.09–13.13 | 7.23–13.99 | 5.87 | 3.57–8.17 | 2.77–8.97 | 16.4810.00–22.96 |
| Blocked shots | 3.96 | 2.38–5.55 | 1.84–6.08 | 2.72 | 1.31–4.14 | 0.82–4.62 | 6.682.66–10.70 |
| Corners | 4.91 | 2.70–7.11 | 2.11–7.71 | 4.20 | 2.22–6.18 | 1.68–6.71 | 9.103.79–14.42 |
| Possession % | 58.01 | 51.69–64.33 | 50.10–65.92 | 42.79 | 36.47–49.11 | 34.87–50.71 | — |
| Passes | 462 | 397–527 | 379–545 | 303 | 239–368 | 221–386 | 765600–931 |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.68 | 72.47–80.90 | 71.16–82.20 | 65.70 | 61.19–70.20 | 59.86–71.53 | — |
| Fouls | 11.33 | 8.47–14.18 | 7.58–15.07 | 11.75 | 8.80–14.69 | 7.88–15.61 | 23.0715.47–30.68 |
| Offsides | 2.02 | 0.81–3.22 | 0.46–3.57 | 1.79 | 0.63–2.95 | 0.30–3.29 | 3.810.76–6.86 |
| Yellow cards | 1.47 | 0.41–2.52 | 0.14–2.79 | 1.78 | 0.65–2.90 | 0.36–3.19 | 3.240.50–5.98 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.67 | 1.25–4.08 | 0.86–4.47 | 2.82 | 1.27–4.38 | 0.84–4.81 | 5.491.70–9.28 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
48%
25%
27%
Shots on target
78%
13%
Total shots
77%
17%
Shots in box
85%
Blocked shots
61%
14%
25%
Corners
53%
13%
34%
Fouls
42%
49%
Offsides
44%
21%
35%
Yellow cards
32%
23%
45%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+