FA Cup· 3rd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
Goalstotal 2.79
1.45home
0.49–2.42 safe0.23–2.68 safer1.34away
0.48–2.20 safe0.24–2.45 saferShots on targettotal 8.85
4.69home
2.83–6.54 safe2.33–7.04 safer4.17away
2.46–5.87 safe1.99–6.34 saferTotal shotstotal 26.76
14.73home
11.03–18.43 safe10.00–19.46 safer12.03away
8.65–15.41 safe7.72–16.34 saferShots in boxtotal 13.13
7.14home
4.62–9.66 safe3.76–10.52 safer5.99away
3.69–8.29 safe2.89–9.09 saferBlocked shotstotal 5.00
2.99home
1.41–4.57 safe0.87–5.11 safer2.01away
0.59–3.42 safe0.11–3.91 saferCornerstotal 9.97
5.15home
2.94–7.35 safe2.35–7.95 safer4.83away
2.85–6.80 safe2.31–7.34 saferPossession %
48.19home
41.88–54.51 safe40.28–56.11 safer51.06away
44.74–57.38 safe43.15–58.98 saferPassestotal 788
399home
334–465 safe317–482 safer389away
324–453 safe306–471 saferPass accuracy %
73.96home
69.74–78.17 safe68.44–79.48 safer71.08away
66.58–75.59 safe65.25–76.92 saferFoulstotal 22.64
11.12home
8.26–13.98 safe7.38–14.86 safer11.52away
8.58–14.47 safe7.66–15.39 saferOffsidestotal 4.08
2.05home
0.84–3.26 safe0.49–3.60 safer2.03away
0.87–3.19 safe0.53–3.52 saferYellow cardstotal 3.41
1.58home
0.53–2.64 safe0.25–2.91 safer1.82away
0.70–2.94 safe0.41–3.23 saferRed cardstotal 0.16
0.09home
0.00–0.24 safe0.00–0.39 safer0.08away
0.00–0.27 safe0.00–0.41 saferGK savestotal 6.00
2.89home
1.48–4.31 safe1.09–4.69 safer3.11away
1.56–4.67 safe1.13–5.10 safer| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.45 | 0.49–2.42 | 0.23–2.68 | 1.34 | 0.48–2.20 | 0.24–2.45 | 2.790.47–5.12 |
| Shots on target | 4.69 | 2.83–6.54 | 2.33–7.04 | 4.17 | 2.46–5.87 | 1.99–6.34 | 8.854.32–13.38 |
| Total shots | 14.73 | 11.03–18.43 | 10.00–19.46 | 12.03 | 8.65–15.41 | 7.72–16.34 | 26.7617.72–35.81 |
| Shots in box | 7.14 | 4.62–9.66 | 3.76–10.52 | 5.99 | 3.69–8.29 | 2.89–9.09 | 13.136.65–19.61 |
| Blocked shots | 2.99 | 1.41–4.57 | 0.87–5.11 | 2.01 | 0.59–3.42 | 0.11–3.91 | 5.000.98–9.02 |
| Corners | 5.15 | 2.94–7.35 | 2.35–7.95 | 4.83 | 2.85–6.80 | 2.31–7.34 | 9.974.65–15.29 |
| Possession % | 48.19 | 41.88–54.51 | 40.28–56.11 | 51.06 | 44.74–57.38 | 43.15–58.98 | — |
| Passes | 399 | 334–465 | 317–482 | 389 | 324–453 | 306–471 | 788623–953 |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.96 | 69.74–78.17 | 68.44–79.48 | 71.08 | 66.58–75.59 | 65.25–76.92 | — |
| Fouls | 11.12 | 8.26–13.98 | 7.38–14.86 | 11.52 | 8.58–14.47 | 7.66–15.39 | 22.6415.04–30.25 |
| Offsides | 2.05 | 0.84–3.26 | 0.49–3.60 | 2.03 | 0.87–3.19 | 0.53–3.52 | 4.081.03–7.12 |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 | 0.53–2.64 | 0.25–2.91 | 1.82 | 0.70–2.94 | 0.41–3.23 | 3.410.67–6.14 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.160.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 2.89 | 1.48–4.31 | 1.09–4.69 | 3.11 | 1.56–4.67 | 1.13–5.10 | 6.002.22–9.79 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
40%
25%
35%
Shots on target
50%
13%
36%
Total shots
66%
27%
Shots in box
57%
32%
Blocked shots
58%
17%
25%
Corners
48%
40%
Fouls
42%
49%
Offsides
40%
20%
39%
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+