FA Cup· 3rd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
Goalstotal 2.81
1.73home
0.77–2.69 safe0.51–2.95 safer1.08away
0.22–1.94 safe0.00–2.18 saferShots on targettotal 9.01
4.97home
3.12–6.83 safe2.62–7.33 safer4.04away
2.33–5.75 safe1.87–6.22 saferTotal shotstotal 22.31
12.00home
8.30–15.70 safe7.26–16.73 safer10.31away
6.93–13.69 safe6.00–14.62 saferShots in boxtotal 6.44
3.41home
0.89–5.93 safe0.03–6.79 safer3.03away
0.72–5.33 safe0.00–6.12 saferBlocked shotstotal 2.32
1.29home
0.00–2.88 safe0.00–3.41 safer1.02away
0.00–2.44 safe0.00–2.92 saferCornerstotal 9.84
6.19home
3.98–8.39 safe3.38–8.99 safer3.66away
1.68–5.64 safe1.14–6.17 saferPossession %
55.63home
49.32–61.95 safe47.72–63.55 safer45.22away
38.90–51.54 safe37.31–53.14 saferPassestotal 797
417home
352–483 safe334–500 safer379away
315–444 safe297–461 saferPass accuracy %
71.95home
67.73–76.16 safe66.43–77.46 safer68.39away
63.88–72.90 safe62.55–74.23 saferFoulstotal 27.34
14.15home
11.30–17.01 safe10.41–17.90 safer13.19away
10.24–16.13 safe9.32–17.05 saferOffsidestotal 4.43
2.08home
0.88–3.29 safe0.53–3.64 safer2.34away
1.18–3.51 safe0.85–3.84 saferYellow cardstotal 3.39
1.77home
0.71–2.82 safe0.44–3.09 safer1.62away
0.50–2.74 safe0.21–3.03 saferRed cardstotal 0.17
0.11home
0.00–0.26 safe0.00–0.42 safer0.06away
0.00–0.25 safe0.00–0.40 saferGK savestotal 6.42
3.33home
1.92–4.75 safe1.53–5.13 safer3.08away
1.53–4.64 safe1.10–5.07 safer| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 | 0.77–2.69 | 0.51–2.95 | 1.08 | 0.22–1.94 | 0.00–2.18 | 2.810.48–5.13 |
| Shots on target | 4.97 | 3.12–6.83 | 2.62–7.33 | 4.04 | 2.33–5.75 | 1.87–6.22 | 9.014.48–13.54 |
| Total shots | 12.00 | 8.30–15.70 | 7.26–16.73 | 10.31 | 6.93–13.69 | 6.00–14.62 | 22.3113.26–31.35 |
| Shots in box | 3.41 | 0.89–5.93 | 0.03–6.79 | 3.03 | 0.72–5.33 | 0.00–6.12 | 6.440.00–12.91 |
| Blocked shots | 1.29 | 0.00–2.88 | 0.00–3.41 | 1.02 | 0.00–2.44 | 0.00–2.92 | 2.320.00–6.33 |
| Corners | 6.19 | 3.98–8.39 | 3.38–8.99 | 3.66 | 1.68–5.64 | 1.14–6.17 | 9.844.53–15.16 |
| Possession % | 55.63 | 49.32–61.95 | 47.72–63.55 | 45.22 | 38.90–51.54 | 37.31–53.14 | — |
| Passes | 417 | 352–483 | 334–500 | 379 | 315–444 | 297–461 | 797632–962 |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.95 | 67.73–76.16 | 66.43–77.46 | 68.39 | 63.88–72.90 | 62.55–74.23 | — |
| Fouls | 14.15 | 11.30–17.01 | 10.41–17.90 | 13.19 | 10.24–16.13 | 9.32–17.05 | 27.3419.74–34.95 |
| Offsides | 2.08 | 0.88–3.29 | 0.53–3.64 | 2.34 | 1.18–3.51 | 0.85–3.84 | 4.431.38–7.48 |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 | 0.71–2.82 | 0.44–3.09 | 1.62 | 0.50–2.74 | 0.21–3.03 | 3.390.65–6.13 |
| Red cards | 0.11 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.170.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 3.33 | 1.92–4.75 | 1.53–5.13 | 3.08 | 1.53–4.64 | 1.10–5.07 | 6.422.63–10.21 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
53%
24%
24%
Shots on target
56%
32%
Total shots
60%
32%
Shots in box
48%
16%
36%
Blocked shots
43%
28%
29%
Corners
74%
16%
Fouls
54%
39%
Offsides
36%
19%
45%
Yellow cards
42%
23%
36%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
46%
16%
38%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+