FA Cup· 3rd Round Qualifying· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
Goalstotal 2.81
1.55home
0.59–2.51 safe0.33–2.77 safer1.26away
0.40–2.12 safe0.16–2.37 saferShots on targettotal 10.27
5.99home
4.13–7.84 safe3.63–8.34 safer4.29away
2.58–5.99 safe2.11–6.46 saferTotal shotstotal 28.72
15.95home
12.25–19.65 safe11.22–20.68 safer12.77away
9.39–16.15 safe8.46–17.08 saferShots in boxtotal 16.14
9.23home
6.71–11.74 safe5.85–12.61 safer6.91away
4.61–9.21 safe3.82–10.01 saferBlocked shotstotal 6.79
3.77home
2.18–5.35 safe1.65–5.88 safer3.02away
1.61–4.43 safe1.12–4.92 saferCornerstotal 9.09
4.85home
2.64–7.05 safe2.05–7.65 safer4.24away
2.26–6.22 safe1.72–6.76 saferPossession %
51.55home
45.24–57.87 safe43.64–59.47 safer47.23away
40.91–53.55 safe39.31–55.14 saferPassestotal 789
407home
342–472 safe324–490 safer382away
317–446 safe300–464 saferPass accuracy %
70.08home
65.87–74.30 safe64.57–75.60 safer68.61away
64.11–73.12 safe62.78–74.45 saferFoulstotal 23.46
11.36home
8.50–14.21 safe7.62–15.10 safer12.10away
9.16–15.05 safe8.24–15.97 saferOffsidestotal 3.56
1.73home
0.52–2.94 safe0.18–3.29 safer1.82away
0.66–2.99 safe0.33–3.32 saferYellow cardstotal 3.12
1.56home
0.50–2.61 safe0.23–2.89 safer1.56away
0.44–2.68 safe0.15–2.97 saferRed cardstotal 0.13
0.07home
0.00–0.22 safe0.00–0.38 safer0.06away
0.00–0.25 safe0.00–0.40 saferGK savestotal 5.77
2.63home
1.22–4.05 safe0.83–4.44 safer3.14away
1.59–4.70 safe1.16–5.13 safer| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 | 0.59–2.51 | 0.33–2.77 | 1.26 | 0.40–2.12 | 0.16–2.37 | 2.810.48–5.14 |
| Shots on target | 5.99 | 4.13–7.84 | 3.63–8.34 | 4.29 | 2.58–5.99 | 2.11–6.46 | 10.275.74–14.81 |
| Total shots | 15.95 | 12.25–19.65 | 11.22–20.68 | 12.77 | 9.39–16.15 | 8.46–17.08 | 28.7219.68–37.76 |
| Shots in box | 9.23 | 6.71–11.74 | 5.85–12.61 | 6.91 | 4.61–9.21 | 3.82–10.01 | 16.149.66–22.62 |
| Blocked shots | 3.77 | 2.18–5.35 | 1.65–5.88 | 3.02 | 1.61–4.43 | 1.12–4.92 | 6.792.77–10.80 |
| Corners | 4.85 | 2.64–7.05 | 2.05–7.65 | 4.24 | 2.26–6.22 | 1.72–6.76 | 9.093.77–14.40 |
| Possession % | 51.55 | 45.24–57.87 | 43.64–59.47 | 47.23 | 40.91–53.55 | 39.31–55.14 | — |
| Passes | 407 | 342–472 | 324–490 | 382 | 317–446 | 300–464 | 789624–954 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.08 | 65.87–74.30 | 64.57–75.60 | 68.61 | 64.11–73.12 | 62.78–74.45 | — |
| Fouls | 11.36 | 8.50–14.21 | 7.62–15.10 | 12.10 | 9.16–15.05 | 8.24–15.97 | 23.4615.86–31.07 |
| Offsides | 1.73 | 0.52–2.94 | 0.18–3.29 | 1.82 | 0.66–2.99 | 0.33–3.32 | 3.560.51–6.61 |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 | 0.50–2.61 | 0.23–2.89 | 1.56 | 0.44–2.68 | 0.15–2.97 | 3.120.38–5.86 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.63 | 1.22–4.05 | 0.83–4.44 | 3.14 | 1.59–4.70 | 1.16–5.13 | 5.771.98–9.56 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
44%
25%
31%
Shots on target
65%
24%
Total shots
69%
25%
Shots in box
67%
24%
Blocked shots
54%
15%
31%
Corners
51%
13%
36%
Fouls
40%
52%
Offsides
37%
22%
41%
Yellow cards
38%
24%
38%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
33%
17%
50%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+