FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Bedford Town
VS
Wingate & FinchleyPredicted match statistics
Goals
62%
21%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.061.003.06safe1.09–3.020.14–1.861.24–4.88safer0.83–3.280.00–2.110.73–5.39
Shots on target
87%
homeawaytotalprediction5.762.207.97safe3.91–7.620.50–3.914.40–11.53safer3.41–8.120.03–4.383.43–12.50
Total shots
78%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction12.208.2020.40safe8.49–15.904.82–11.5813.32–27.48safer7.46–16.933.89–12.5111.35–29.44
Shots in box
59%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.304.069.36safe2.78–7.811.76–6.364.54–14.18safer1.92–8.680.96–7.162.88–15.84
Blocked shots
52%
19%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.461.854.30safe0.87–4.040.43–3.261.31–7.30safer0.34–4.570.00–3.750.29–8.32
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.263.558.80safe3.05–7.461.57–5.524.62–12.99safer2.46–8.061.03–6.063.49–14.12
Possession %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction55.7045.23safe49.38–62.0238.92–51.55safer47.79–63.6137.32–53.15
Passes
66%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction411362773safe346–477297–426643–903safer328–494279–444608–938
Pass accuracy %
69%
27%
homeawayprediction74.4769.97safe70.25–78.6965.46–74.48safer68.95–79.9964.13–75.81
Fouls
49%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2010.7821.98safe8.34–14.067.84–13.7316.18–27.79safer7.46–14.946.92–14.6514.38–29.59
Offsides
41%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.943.93safe0.78–3.200.78–3.101.56–6.30safer0.44–3.550.44–3.430.88–6.98
Yellow cards
36%
24%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.643.17safe0.46–2.580.52–2.770.99–5.34safer0.19–2.850.23–3.060.43–5.90
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.090.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.552.965.50safe1.13–3.961.40–4.512.54–8.47safer0.75–4.350.97–4.941.72–9.29
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.06 1.09–3.02 0.83–3.28 | 1.00 0.14–1.86 0.00–2.11 | 3.06 1.24–4.88 0.73–5.39 | 62% 21% 18% |
| Shots on target | 5.76 3.91–7.62 3.41–8.12 | 2.20 0.50–3.91 0.03–4.38 | 7.97 4.40–11.53 3.43–12.50 | 87% |
| Total shots | 12.20 8.49–15.90 7.46–16.93 | 8.20 4.82–11.58 3.89–12.51 | 20.40 13.32–27.48 11.35–29.44 | 78% 16% |
| Shots in box | 5.30 2.78–7.81 1.92–8.68 | 4.06 1.76–6.36 0.96–7.16 | 9.36 4.54–14.18 2.88–15.84 | 59% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 2.46 0.87–4.04 0.34–4.57 | 1.85 0.43–3.26 0.00–3.75 | 4.30 1.31–7.30 0.29–8.32 | 52% 19% 29% |
| Corners | 5.26 3.05–7.46 2.46–8.06 | 3.55 1.57–5.52 1.03–6.06 | 8.80 4.62–12.99 3.49–14.12 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 55.70 49.38–62.02 47.79–63.61 | 45.23 38.92–51.55 37.32–53.15 | — | 73% 23% |
| Passes | 411 346–477 328–494 | 362 297–426 279–444 | 773 643–903 608–938 | 66% 33% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.47 70.25–78.69 68.95–79.99 | 69.97 65.46–74.48 64.13–75.81 | — | 69% 27% |
| Fouls | 11.20 8.34–14.06 7.46–14.94 | 10.78 7.84–13.73 6.92–14.65 | 21.98 16.18–27.79 14.38–29.59 | 49% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.99 0.78–3.20 0.44–3.55 | 1.94 0.78–3.10 0.44–3.43 | 3.93 1.56–6.30 0.88–6.98 | 41% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 0.46–2.58 0.19–2.85 | 1.64 0.52–2.77 0.23–3.06 | 3.17 0.99–5.34 0.43–5.90 | 36% 24% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.40 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.55 1.13–3.96 0.75–4.35 | 2.96 1.40–4.51 0.97–4.94 | 5.50 2.54–8.47 1.72–9.29 | 35% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+