FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Cray Wanderers
VS
Chippenham TownPredicted match statistics
Goals
37%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.633.20safe0.60–2.530.77–2.491.37–5.02safer0.34–2.790.53–2.740.87–5.52
Shots on target
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.804.7810.59safe3.94–7.663.08–6.497.02–14.15safer3.45–8.162.61–6.966.05–15.12
Total shots
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3012.3426.65safe10.60–18.018.96–15.7219.56–33.73safer9.57–19.048.03–16.6517.60–35.69
Shots in box
32%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction8.059.4517.50safe5.53–10.577.15–11.7512.68–22.32safer4.67–11.436.35–12.5511.02–23.98
Blocked shots
44%
15%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.663.577.23safe2.07–5.242.16–4.994.23–10.23safer1.54–5.781.67–5.473.21–11.25
Corners
36%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.615.199.80safe2.40–6.813.21–7.175.61–13.98safer1.81–7.412.67–7.714.48–15.11
Possession %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction48.5151.68safe42.19–54.8345.36–58.00safer40.59–56.4243.76–59.59
Passes
58%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction411386796safe346–476321–450667–926safer328–494303–468631–962
Pass accuracy %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction70.8071.40safe66.58–75.0266.89–75.91safer65.28–76.3265.56–77.24
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6812.5024.17safe8.82–14.549.55–15.4418.37–29.98safer7.94–15.428.63–16.3616.57–31.78
Offsides
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.883.52safe0.43–2.850.71–3.041.14–5.89safer0.09–3.190.38–3.370.47–6.56
Yellow cards
38%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.663.27safe0.56–2.670.54–2.781.10–5.45safer0.29–2.940.25–3.070.53–6.01
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.050.11safe0.00–0.220.00–0.240.00–0.46safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.76
GK saves
32%
17%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.463.085.54safe1.05–3.881.52–4.632.57–8.51safer0.66–4.271.09–5.061.75–9.33
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.56 0.60–2.53 0.34–2.79 | 1.63 0.77–2.49 0.53–2.74 | 3.20 1.37–5.02 0.87–5.52 | 37% 23% 40% |
| Shots on target | 5.80 3.94–7.66 3.45–8.16 | 4.78 3.08–6.49 2.61–6.96 | 10.59 7.02–14.15 6.05–15.12 | 56% 32% |
| Total shots | 14.30 10.60–18.01 9.57–19.04 | 12.34 8.96–15.72 8.03–16.65 | 26.65 19.56–33.73 17.60–35.69 | 61% 32% |
| Shots in box | 8.05 5.53–10.57 4.67–11.43 | 9.45 7.15–11.75 6.35–12.55 | 17.50 12.68–22.32 11.02–23.98 | 32% 58% |
| Blocked shots | 3.66 2.07–5.24 1.54–5.78 | 3.57 2.16–4.99 1.67–5.47 | 7.23 4.23–10.23 3.21–11.25 | 44% 15% 41% |
| Corners | 4.61 2.40–6.81 1.81–7.41 | 5.19 3.21–7.17 2.67–7.71 | 9.80 5.61–13.98 4.48–15.11 | 36% 51% |
| Possession % | 48.51 42.19–54.83 40.59–56.42 | 51.68 45.36–58.00 43.76–59.59 | — | 40% 55% |
| Passes | 411 346–476 328–494 | 386 321–450 303–468 | 796 667–926 631–962 | 58% 41% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.80 66.58–75.02 65.28–76.32 | 71.40 66.89–75.91 65.56–77.24 | — | 45% 50% |
| Fouls | 11.68 8.82–14.54 7.94–15.42 | 12.50 9.55–15.44 8.63–16.36 | 24.17 18.37–29.98 16.57–31.78 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.64 0.43–2.85 0.09–3.19 | 1.88 0.71–3.04 0.38–3.37 | 3.52 1.14–5.89 0.47–6.56 | 34% 22% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.56–2.67 0.29–2.94 | 1.66 0.54–2.78 0.25–3.07 | 3.27 1.10–5.45 0.53–6.01 | 38% 23% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.05 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.46 1.05–3.88 0.66–4.27 | 3.08 1.52–4.63 1.09–5.06 | 5.54 2.57–8.51 1.75–9.33 | 32% 17% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+