FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Dorking Wanderers
VS
Chatham TownPredicted match statistics
Goals
42%
25%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.252.72safe0.51–2.440.39–2.110.90–4.55safer0.25–2.700.14–2.350.40–5.05
Shots on target
66%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.873.218.08safe3.01–6.721.50–4.924.52–11.64safer2.51–7.221.03–5.393.55–12.61
Total shots
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0011.3926.39safe11.30–18.708.01–14.7619.30–33.47safer10.27–19.737.08–15.7017.34–35.43
Shots in box
49%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.615.1910.80safe3.10–8.132.88–7.495.98–15.61safer2.23–8.992.09–8.284.32–17.28
Blocked shots
43%
19%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.452.314.77safe0.87–4.040.90–3.731.77–7.77safer0.33–4.570.41–4.210.75–8.79
Corners
54%
13%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.673.868.53safe2.46–6.871.88–5.844.34–12.71safer1.86–7.471.35–6.383.21–13.84
Possession %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction51.1247.77safe44.80–57.4441.45–54.09safer43.21–59.0339.86–55.69
Passes
66%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction428379807safe363–493315–444677–937safer345–511297–461642–972
Pass accuracy %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction69.5468.36safe65.33–73.7663.86–72.87safer64.03–75.0662.53–74.20
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6911.7324.43safe9.84–15.558.79–14.6818.63–30.23safer8.95–16.447.87–15.6016.82–32.04
Offsides
32%
23%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.833.32safe0.28–2.700.67–3.000.95–5.69safer0.00–3.040.34–3.330.27–6.37
Yellow cards
35%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.763.37safe0.55–2.660.64–2.881.19–5.54safer0.28–2.930.35–3.170.63–6.11
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.050.16safe0.00–0.270.00–0.240.00–0.51safer0.00–0.420.00–0.390.00–0.80
GK saves
44%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.992.865.86safe1.58–4.411.31–4.422.89–8.83safer1.19–4.800.88–4.852.07–9.65
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.51–2.44 0.25–2.70 | 1.25 0.39–2.11 0.14–2.35 | 2.72 0.90–4.55 0.40–5.05 | 42% 25% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.87 3.01–6.72 2.51–7.22 | 3.21 1.50–4.92 1.03–5.39 | 8.08 4.52–11.64 3.55–12.61 | 66% 22% |
| Total shots | 15.00 11.30–18.70 10.27–19.73 | 11.39 8.01–14.76 7.08–15.70 | 26.39 19.30–33.47 17.34–35.43 | 73% 21% |
| Shots in box | 5.61 3.10–8.13 2.23–8.99 | 5.19 2.88–7.49 2.09–8.28 | 10.80 5.98–15.61 4.32–17.28 | 49% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 2.45 0.87–4.04 0.33–4.57 | 2.31 0.90–3.73 0.41–4.21 | 4.77 1.77–7.77 0.75–8.79 | 43% 19% 38% |
| Corners | 4.67 2.46–6.87 1.86–7.47 | 3.86 1.88–5.84 1.35–6.38 | 8.53 4.34–12.71 3.21–13.84 | 54% 13% 33% |
| Possession % | 51.12 44.80–57.44 43.21–59.03 | 47.77 41.45–54.09 39.86–55.69 | — | 56% 39% |
| Passes | 428 363–493 345–511 | 379 315–444 297–461 | 807 677–937 642–972 | 66% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.54 65.33–73.76 64.03–75.06 | 68.36 63.86–72.87 62.53–74.20 | — | 53% 42% |
| Fouls | 12.69 9.84–15.55 8.95–16.44 | 11.73 8.79–14.68 7.87–15.60 | 24.43 18.63–30.23 16.82–32.04 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 1.49 0.28–2.70 0.00–3.04 | 1.83 0.67–3.00 0.34–3.33 | 3.32 0.95–5.69 0.27–6.37 | 32% 23% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 0.55–2.66 0.28–2.93 | 1.76 0.64–2.88 0.35–3.17 | 3.37 1.19–5.54 0.63–6.11 | 35% 23% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.05 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.99 1.58–4.41 1.19–4.80 | 2.86 1.31–4.42 0.88–4.85 | 5.86 2.89–8.83 2.07–9.65 | 44% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+