FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Truro City
VS
Cirencester TownPredicted match statistics
Goals
40%
27%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.301.142.43safe0.33–2.260.28–1.990.61–4.25safer0.07–2.520.03–2.240.10–4.76
Shots on target
54%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.423.668.07safe2.56–6.271.95–5.364.51–11.64safer2.06–6.771.48–5.833.54–12.60
Total shots
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction11.289.5420.81safe7.57–14.986.16–12.9213.73–27.90safer6.54–16.015.23–13.8511.77–29.86
Shots in box
76%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction4.382.126.50safe1.86–6.890.00–4.421.68–11.31safer1.00–7.760.00–5.220.02–12.98
Blocked shots
56%
25%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction1.620.842.46safe0.04–3.210.00–2.250.00–5.46safer0.00–3.740.00–2.740.00–6.48
Corners
57%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.003.968.97safe2.80–7.211.98–5.944.78–13.15safer2.20–7.801.45–6.483.65–14.28
Possession %
66%
29%
homeawayprediction53.3545.73safe47.03–59.6739.41–52.05safer45.44–61.2737.81–53.64
Passes
68%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction414358772safe349–479293–422642–902safer331–497276–440607–937
Pass accuracy %
65%
31%
homeawayprediction72.7369.19safe68.52–76.9564.68–73.69safer67.22–78.2563.35–75.02
Fouls
31%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6613.6925.35safe8.80–14.5210.75–16.6419.55–31.16safer7.92–15.409.83–17.5617.75–32.96
Offsides
48%
21%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.041.623.67safe0.83–3.250.46–2.791.29–6.04safer0.49–3.600.13–3.120.62–6.71
Yellow cards
36%
23%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.713.31safe0.55–2.660.59–2.831.14–5.49safer0.27–2.930.30–3.120.57–6.05
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.070.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.410.00–0.400.00–0.81
GK saves
40%
18%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.652.715.36safe1.24–4.061.15–4.262.39–8.32safer0.85–4.450.72–4.691.57–9.14
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 0.33–2.26 0.07–2.52 | 1.14 0.28–1.99 0.03–2.24 | 2.43 0.61–4.25 0.10–4.76 | 40% 27% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.42 2.56–6.27 2.06–6.77 | 3.66 1.95–5.36 1.48–5.83 | 8.07 4.51–11.64 3.54–12.60 | 54% 14% 33% |
| Total shots | 11.28 7.57–14.98 6.54–16.01 | 9.54 6.16–12.92 5.23–13.85 | 20.81 13.73–27.90 11.77–29.86 | 61% 31% |
| Shots in box | 4.38 1.86–6.89 1.00–7.76 | 2.12 0.00–4.42 0.00–5.22 | 6.50 1.68–11.31 0.02–12.98 | 76% 13% |
| Blocked shots | 1.62 0.04–3.21 0.00–3.74 | 0.84 0.00–2.25 0.00–2.74 | 2.46 0.00–5.46 0.00–6.48 | 56% 25% 19% |
| Corners | 5.00 2.80–7.21 2.20–7.80 | 3.96 1.98–5.94 1.45–6.48 | 8.97 4.78–13.15 3.65–14.28 | 57% 30% |
| Possession % | 53.35 47.03–59.67 45.44–61.27 | 45.73 39.41–52.05 37.81–53.64 | — | 66% 29% |
| Passes | 414 349–479 331–497 | 358 293–422 276–440 | 772 642–902 607–937 | 68% 31% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.73 68.52–76.95 67.22–78.25 | 69.19 64.68–73.69 63.35–75.02 | — | 65% 31% |
| Fouls | 11.66 8.80–14.52 7.92–15.40 | 13.69 10.75–16.64 9.83–17.56 | 25.35 19.55–31.16 17.75–32.96 | 31% 62% |
| Offsides | 2.04 0.83–3.25 0.49–3.60 | 1.62 0.46–2.79 0.13–3.12 | 3.67 1.29–6.04 0.62–6.71 | 48% 21% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 0.55–2.66 0.27–2.93 | 1.71 0.59–2.83 0.30–3.12 | 3.31 1.14–5.49 0.57–6.05 | 36% 23% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.41 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.65 1.24–4.06 0.85–4.45 | 2.71 1.15–4.26 0.72–4.69 | 5.36 2.39–8.32 1.57–9.14 | 40% 18% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+