FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·FA Cup·3rd Round Qualifying·Worksop Town
VS
United of ManchesterPredicted match statistics
Goals
49%
24%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.242.99safe0.78–2.710.38–2.101.17–4.81safer0.52–2.970.14–2.350.66–5.32
Shots on target
46%
14%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.173.938.10safe2.31–6.022.23–5.644.54–11.66safer1.81–6.521.76–6.113.57–12.63
Total shots
26%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6914.4226.10safe7.98–15.3911.04–17.7919.02–33.19safer6.95–16.4210.11–18.7217.06–35.15
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction9.294.2913.58safe6.77–11.801.99–6.608.76–18.40safer5.91–12.671.20–7.397.10–20.06
Blocked shots
63%
15%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction3.512.205.71safe1.92–5.090.79–3.622.71–8.71safer1.39–5.620.30–4.101.69–9.73
Corners
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.433.538.97safe3.23–7.641.56–5.514.78–13.15safer2.63–8.231.02–6.053.65–14.28
Possession %
64%
31%
homeawayprediction52.9046.18safe46.58–59.2239.86–52.50safer44.99–60.8238.26–54.09
Passes
67%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction431379810safe365–496315–444680–940safer348–514297–461645–975
Pass accuracy %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction73.7268.38safe69.51–77.9463.88–72.89safer68.20–79.2462.55–74.22
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5411.5523.09safe8.68–14.408.61–14.5017.29–28.90safer7.80–15.287.69–15.4215.49–30.70
Offsides
41%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.071.984.05safe0.86–3.280.81–3.141.67–6.42safer0.51–3.620.48–3.471.00–7.09
Yellow cards
36%
23%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.703.29safe0.53–2.640.58–2.821.11–5.46safer0.25–2.910.29–3.110.55–6.02
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.090.24safe0.00–0.290.00–0.290.00–0.58safer0.00–0.450.00–0.430.00–0.88
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.942.935.87safe1.53–4.361.38–4.492.91–8.84safer1.14–4.750.95–4.922.08–9.66
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.75 0.78–2.71 0.52–2.97 | 1.24 0.38–2.10 0.14–2.35 | 2.99 1.17–4.81 0.66–5.32 | 49% 24% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.17 2.31–6.02 1.81–6.52 | 3.93 2.23–5.64 1.76–6.11 | 8.10 4.54–11.66 3.57–12.63 | 46% 14% 40% |
| Total shots | 11.69 7.98–15.39 6.95–16.42 | 14.42 11.04–17.79 10.11–18.72 | 26.10 19.02–33.19 17.06–35.15 | 26% 67% |
| Shots in box | 9.29 6.77–11.80 5.91–12.67 | 4.29 1.99–6.60 1.20–7.39 | 13.58 8.76–18.40 7.10–20.06 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 3.51 1.92–5.09 1.39–5.62 | 2.20 0.79–3.62 0.30–4.10 | 5.71 2.71–8.71 1.69–9.73 | 63% 15% 22% |
| Corners | 5.43 3.23–7.64 2.63–8.23 | 3.53 1.56–5.51 1.02–6.05 | 8.97 4.78–13.15 3.65–14.28 | 68% 21% |
| Possession % | 52.90 46.58–59.22 44.99–60.82 | 46.18 39.86–52.50 38.26–54.09 | — | 64% 31% |
| Passes | 431 365–496 348–514 | 379 315–444 297–461 | 810 680–940 645–975 | 67% 33% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.72 69.51–77.94 68.20–79.24 | 68.38 63.88–72.89 62.55–74.22 | — | 73% 23% |
| Fouls | 11.54 8.68–14.40 7.80–15.28 | 11.55 8.61–14.50 7.69–15.42 | 23.09 17.29–28.90 15.49–30.70 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 2.07 0.86–3.28 0.51–3.62 | 1.98 0.81–3.14 0.48–3.47 | 4.05 1.67–6.42 1.00–7.09 | 41% 21% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 0.53–2.64 0.25–2.91 | 1.70 0.58–2.82 0.29–3.11 | 3.29 1.11–5.46 0.55–6.02 | 36% 23% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.45 | 0.09 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.24 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.88 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.94 1.53–4.36 1.14–4.75 | 2.93 1.38–4.49 0.95–4.92 | 5.87 2.91–8.84 2.08–9.66 | 42% 17% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+