Accuracy
BallileoToday's models, on this season's finished matches.
How these grades are made
Every grade here is recreated, not what we showed at the time. For each finished 2026/27 match, we ask today's models what they would have said just before kickoff, using only what was known then: the real starting teams where we have them, and the referee. These models learned nothing from this season's matches. When the models change, every match is recreated with the new ones, so these figures can change. That is why a match's recreated prediction can differ from the one on its own page, which stays as we published it before kickoff.
Grades made with the models of .
2,715 matches
263 matches left out: no squad known.
The Safe and Safer ranges
- 73%in Safe69,457
- 9%only in Safer8,202
- 18%outside both17,218
In 73% of checks, the real number was inside the Safe range. In another 9%, it was inside the Safer range. In 18%, it was outside both.
Every match gives one check for the home side, the away side and the total, for every statistic: 94,877 checks in all. The ranges are rounded to whole numbers, exactly as the match page shows them.
| Home | Away | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Actual | 4in Safe | 7outside both | 11only in Safer |
Actual 4in Safe
Actual 7outside both
Actual 11only in Safer
| Home | Away | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Safe | 4 – 6 | 2 – 4 | 6 – 10 |
| Safer | 3 – 7 | 1 – 5 | 4 – 12 |
| Actual | in Safe | outside both | only in Safer |
Better than guessing
Imagine someone who guesses: for every match they give the same number, the season's average. This measures how much more accurate our prediction is than theirs. At 0%, it is just as accurate.
- PassesAverage: home 452, away 43549%
- Pass accuracy (%)Average: home 82, away 8148%
- Possession (%)Average: home 51, away 4942%
- Shots in the boxAverage: home 10, away 826%
- Total shotsAverage: home 15, away 1226%
- Shots on targetAverage: home 5, away 419%
- GoalsAverage: home 2, away 118%
- FoulsAverage: home 12, away 1216%
- CornersAverage: home 5, away 414%
- Goalkeeper savesAverage: home 3, away 311%
- Blocked shotsAverage: home 4, away 310%
- OffsidesAverage: home 2, away 29%
- Yellow cardsAverage: home 2, away 22%
- Red cardsAverage: home 0, away 00%
Red cards: the model always says 0, exactly what the guess says, so 0%.
The chance bars
On a match page, the chance bar shows what is most likely for each statistic: the home side has more, the away side has more, or it's level.
In the list below, each bar and its percentage show our accuracy: how often what we called most likely really happened. The mark across the bar shows how often you would be right by always giving the most common answer.
- PassesAlways "home": 54%75%
- Pass accuracy (%)Always "home": 53%73%
- Possession (%)Always "home": 55%73%
- Shots in the boxAlways "home": 57%70%
- FoulsAlways "away": 48%59%
- Total shotsAlways "home": 59%70%
- Shots on targetAlways "home": 54%65%
- Goals (the result)Always "home": 45%56%
- Goalkeeper savesAlways "away": 49%57%
- OffsidesAlways "home": 41%48%
- Blocked shotsAlways "home": 52%59%
- CornersAlways "home": 54%61%
- Yellow cardsAlways "away": 44%48%
- Red cardsAlways "draw": 85%85%
How to read this page
- Today's models only
- Every figure is from the models that make the predictions today, on matches they never saw while learning.
- Home, away, total
- The ranges count the home side, the away side and the total. "Better than guessing" counts the home and away sides only: a total's error is on the scale of a sum and would mix two measures.
- Big misses count for more
- "Better than guessing" compares squared errors, so one miss of 4 weighs as much as four misses of 2.
- The bar's biggest part
- Sometimes two parts of a bar look the same, say 40% and 40%. One is still slightly bigger, but it doesn't show because we print whole numbers. That is the one we count.