Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
25%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.272.84safe0.60–2.540.41–2.121.01–4.66safer0.35–2.790.18–2.350.53–5.14
Shots on target
55%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.154.259.40safe3.28–7.012.51–5.995.79–13.00safer2.79–7.502.04–6.464.84–13.96
Total shots
69%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9911.0425.03safe10.06–17.917.48–14.6117.54–32.52safer8.97–19.006.52–15.5715.49–34.57
Shots in box
67%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction9.437.1316.57safe6.49–12.384.45–9.8210.95–22.19safer5.66–13.213.72–10.559.38–23.76
Blocked shots
62%
14%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.052.746.79safe2.17–5.931.09–4.393.26–10.33safer1.63–6.480.59–4.882.22–11.36
Corners
65%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.723.989.69safe3.50–7.931.98–5.985.48–13.91safer2.93–8.501.44–6.514.37–15.01
Possession %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction51.3948.11safe44.60–58.1841.33–54.90safer42.93–59.8539.65–56.57
Passes
60%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction511479990safe444–578413–546857–1124safer426–596395–563821–1160
Pass accuracy %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction72.3373.52safe68.30–76.3669.20–77.85safer67.01–77.6667.89–79.16
Fouls
65%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5210.1922.71safe9.68–15.367.25–13.1416.93–28.49safer8.92–16.116.50–13.8915.42–30.00
Offsides
32%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.622.003.62safe0.46–2.780.90–3.091.36–5.87safer0.16–3.080.62–3.380.78–6.46
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.823.41safe0.54–2.640.69–2.951.23–5.59safer0.27–2.900.40–3.240.67–6.14
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
30%
15%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.793.586.37safe1.35–4.222.02–5.143.38–9.36safer0.96–4.611.60–5.562.56–10.17
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.57 0.60–2.54 0.35–2.79 | 1.27 0.41–2.12 0.18–2.35 | 2.84 1.01–4.66 0.53–5.14 | 44% 25% 31% |
| Shots on target | 5.15 3.28–7.01 2.79–7.50 | 4.25 2.51–5.99 2.04–6.46 | 9.40 5.79–13.00 4.84–13.96 | 55% 32% |
| Total shots | 13.99 10.06–17.91 8.97–19.00 | 11.04 7.48–14.61 6.52–15.57 | 25.03 17.54–32.52 15.49–34.57 | 69% 24% |
| Shots in box | 9.43 6.49–12.38 5.66–13.21 | 7.13 4.45–9.82 3.72–10.55 | 16.57 10.95–22.19 9.38–23.76 | 67% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 4.05 2.17–5.93 1.63–6.48 | 2.74 1.09–4.39 0.59–4.88 | 6.79 3.26–10.33 2.22–11.36 | 62% 14% 24% |
| Corners | 5.72 3.50–7.93 2.93–8.50 | 3.98 1.98–5.98 1.44–6.51 | 9.69 5.48–13.91 4.37–15.01 | 65% 23% |
| Possession % | 51.39 44.60–58.18 42.93–59.85 | 48.11 41.33–54.90 39.65–56.57 | — | 55% 40% |
| Passes | 511 444–578 426–596 | 479 413–546 395–563 | 990 857–1124 821–1160 | 60% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.33 68.30–76.36 67.01–77.66 | 73.52 69.20–77.85 67.89–79.16 | — | 41% 54% |
| Fouls | 12.52 9.68–15.36 8.92–16.11 | 10.19 7.25–13.14 6.50–13.89 | 22.71 16.93–28.49 15.42–30.00 | 65% 28% |
| Offsides | 1.62 0.46–2.78 0.16–3.08 | 2.00 0.90–3.09 0.62–3.38 | 3.62 1.36–5.87 0.78–6.46 | 32% 22% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 1.59 0.54–2.64 0.27–2.90 | 1.82 0.69–2.95 0.40–3.24 | 3.41 1.23–5.59 0.67–6.14 | 34% 22% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.79 1.35–4.22 0.96–4.61 | 3.58 2.02–5.14 1.60–5.56 | 6.37 3.38–9.36 2.56–10.17 | 30% 15% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.