Predicted match statistics
Goals
25%
23%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.782.96safe0.21–2.150.93–2.641.14–4.78safer0.00–2.400.70–2.860.66–5.26
Shots on target
29%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction4.075.269.33safe2.21–5.933.51–7.005.72–12.93safer1.72–6.423.05–7.464.76–13.89
Total shots
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5613.8526.41safe8.64–16.4810.29–17.4118.92–33.90safer7.54–17.589.33–18.3716.87–35.95
Shots in box
26%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction7.329.4516.77safe4.38–10.266.76–12.1311.14–22.39safer3.55–11.096.03–12.869.58–23.96
Blocked shots
44%
16%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.313.186.50safe1.43–5.201.53–4.842.96–10.03safer0.89–5.741.04–5.331.93–11.07
Corners
44%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.145.1510.29safe2.93–7.353.15–7.156.08–14.50safer2.35–7.932.62–7.694.97–15.61
Possession %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction47.4452.90safe40.65–54.2346.12–59.69safer38.98–55.9044.45–61.36
Passes
40%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction463493957safe396–531427–560823–1091safer378–549409–577787–1126
Pass accuracy %
31%
65%
homeawayprediction68.3171.71safe64.28–72.3467.38–76.03safer62.98–73.6366.07–77.34
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8412.9925.83safe10.00–15.6810.05–15.9420.05–31.61safer9.25–16.439.30–16.6918.55–33.12
Offsides
45%
21%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.081.803.89safe0.92–3.240.71–2.901.63–6.14safer0.62–3.540.42–3.191.04–6.73
Yellow cards
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.913.87safe0.90–3.000.78–3.041.69–6.05safer0.64–3.270.49–3.331.13–6.60
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.18safe0.00–0.250.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
50%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.392.886.26safe1.95–4.821.32–4.433.27–9.26safer1.56–5.210.90–4.862.46–10.07
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.21–2.15 0.00–2.40 | 1.78 0.93–2.64 0.70–2.86 | 2.96 1.14–4.78 0.66–5.26 | 25% 23% 51% |
| Shots on target | 4.07 2.21–5.93 1.72–6.42 | 5.26 3.51–7.00 3.05–7.46 | 9.33 5.72–12.93 4.76–13.89 | 29% 59% |
| Total shots | 12.56 8.64–16.48 7.54–17.58 | 13.85 10.29–17.41 9.33–18.37 | 26.41 18.92–33.90 16.87–35.95 | 36% 56% |
| Shots in box | 7.32 4.38–10.26 3.55–11.09 | 9.45 6.76–12.13 6.03–12.86 | 16.77 11.14–22.39 9.58–23.96 | 26% 65% |
| Blocked shots | 3.31 1.43–5.20 0.89–5.74 | 3.18 1.53–4.84 1.04–5.33 | 6.50 2.96–10.03 1.93–11.07 | 44% 16% 40% |
| Corners | 5.14 2.93–7.35 2.35–7.93 | 5.15 3.15–7.15 2.62–7.69 | 10.29 6.08–14.50 4.97–15.61 | 44% 44% |
| Possession % | 47.44 40.65–54.23 38.98–55.90 | 52.90 46.12–59.69 44.45–61.36 | — | 35% 60% |
| Passes | 463 396–531 378–549 | 493 427–560 409–577 | 957 823–1091 787–1126 | 40% 60% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.31 64.28–72.34 62.98–73.63 | 71.71 67.38–76.03 66.07–77.34 | — | 31% 65% |
| Fouls | 12.84 10.00–15.68 9.25–16.43 | 12.99 10.05–15.94 9.30–16.69 | 25.83 20.05–31.61 18.55–33.12 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 2.08 0.92–3.24 0.62–3.54 | 1.80 0.71–2.90 0.42–3.19 | 3.89 1.63–6.14 1.04–6.73 | 45% 21% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.95 0.90–3.00 0.64–3.27 | 1.91 0.78–3.04 0.49–3.33 | 3.87 1.69–6.05 1.13–6.60 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.39 1.95–4.82 1.56–5.21 | 2.88 1.32–4.43 0.90–4.86 | 6.26 3.27–9.26 2.46–10.07 | 50% 16% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.