Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
24%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.413.06safe0.68–2.620.55–2.261.24–4.88safer0.43–2.870.33–2.490.76–5.36
Shots on target
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.464.8410.30safe3.60–7.323.10–6.586.70–13.91safer3.11–7.812.63–7.055.74–14.86
Total shots
69%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction15.7312.5828.31safe11.80–19.659.02–16.1520.82–35.80safer10.71–20.748.06–17.1018.77–37.85
Shots in box
60%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction10.488.8719.35safe7.54–13.426.19–11.5513.73–24.97safer6.71–14.255.45–12.2912.16–26.54
Blocked shots
63%
13%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.403.007.40safe2.51–6.281.35–4.663.86–10.94safer1.97–6.820.86–5.152.83–11.97
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.694.5710.25safe3.48–7.902.57–6.576.04–14.47safer2.90–8.482.03–7.104.93–15.58
Possession %
64%
31%
homeawayprediction54.0446.88safe47.25–60.8340.10–53.67safer45.58–62.5038.43–55.34
Passes
73%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction503431934safe436–571364–497800–1068safer418–589347–515765–1103
Pass accuracy %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction71.2371.22safe67.20–75.2666.89–75.54safer65.91–76.5665.58–76.85
Fouls
57%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3512.0025.35safe10.52–16.199.05–14.9419.57–31.13safer9.76–16.958.30–15.6918.07–32.64
Offsides
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.873.48safe0.45–2.770.77–2.961.23–5.73safer0.15–3.070.49–3.250.64–6.32
Yellow cards
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.843.62safe0.73–2.820.71–2.971.44–5.79safer0.46–3.090.42–3.260.88–6.35
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
34%
15%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.133.706.83safe1.70–4.572.14–5.253.84–9.82safer1.31–4.961.72–5.683.02–10.63
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.65 0.68–2.62 0.43–2.87 | 1.41 0.55–2.26 0.33–2.49 | 3.06 1.24–4.88 0.76–5.36 | 43% 24% 33% |
| Shots on target | 5.46 3.60–7.32 3.11–7.81 | 4.84 3.10–6.58 2.63–7.05 | 10.30 6.70–13.91 5.74–14.86 | 51% 36% |
| Total shots | 15.73 11.80–19.65 10.71–20.74 | 12.58 9.02–16.15 8.06–17.10 | 28.31 20.82–35.80 18.77–37.85 | 69% 25% |
| Shots in box | 10.48 7.54–13.42 6.71–14.25 | 8.87 6.19–11.55 5.45–12.29 | 19.35 13.73–24.97 12.16–26.54 | 60% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 4.40 2.51–6.28 1.97–6.82 | 3.00 1.35–4.66 0.86–5.15 | 7.40 3.86–10.94 2.83–11.97 | 63% 13% 24% |
| Corners | 5.69 3.48–7.90 2.90–8.48 | 4.57 2.57–6.57 2.03–7.10 | 10.25 6.04–14.47 4.93–15.58 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 54.04 47.25–60.83 45.58–62.50 | 46.88 40.10–53.67 38.43–55.34 | — | 64% 31% |
| Passes | 503 436–571 418–589 | 431 364–497 347–515 | 934 800–1068 765–1103 | 73% 27% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.23 67.20–75.26 65.91–76.56 | 71.22 66.89–75.54 65.58–76.85 | — | 48% 47% |
| Fouls | 13.35 10.52–16.19 9.76–16.95 | 12.00 9.05–14.94 8.30–15.69 | 25.35 19.57–31.13 18.07–32.64 | 57% 36% |
| Offsides | 1.61 0.45–2.77 0.15–3.07 | 1.87 0.77–2.96 0.49–3.25 | 3.48 1.23–5.73 0.64–6.32 | 34% 22% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 0.73–2.82 0.46–3.09 | 1.84 0.71–2.97 0.42–3.26 | 3.62 1.44–5.79 0.88–6.35 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.13 1.70–4.57 1.31–4.96 | 3.70 2.14–5.25 1.72–5.68 | 6.83 3.84–9.82 3.02–10.63 | 34% 15% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.