Predicted match statistics
Goals
22%
24%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction0.991.682.66safe0.02–1.950.82–2.530.84–4.49safer0.00–2.210.59–2.760.36–4.96
Shots on target
24%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction3.535.108.63safe1.67–5.393.36–6.845.03–12.24safer1.18–5.882.89–7.314.07–13.19
Total shots
21%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4714.0224.49safe6.54–14.3910.46–17.5817.00–31.97safer5.45–15.489.50–18.5414.95–34.02
Shots in box
17%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction6.059.3015.35safe3.10–8.996.62–11.989.73–20.97safer2.28–9.825.88–12.728.16–22.54
Blocked shots
35%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.973.396.36safe1.09–4.851.74–5.052.83–9.90safer0.54–5.391.25–5.541.79–10.93
Corners
33%
13%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.994.828.80safe1.77–6.202.82–6.824.59–13.02safer1.20–6.772.28–7.353.48–14.13
Possession %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction46.6653.01safe39.87–53.4546.23–59.80safer38.20–55.1244.56–61.47
Passes
34%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction431481912safe363–498414–547778–1045safer345–516397–565742–1081
Pass accuracy %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction82.1384.46safe78.10–86.1680.13–88.78safer76.81–87.4678.82–90.09
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0713.1026.17safe10.23–15.9110.15–16.0420.39–31.95safer9.48–16.669.40–16.7918.88–33.46
Offsides
30%
21%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.602.073.67safe0.44–2.760.98–3.161.41–5.92safer0.14–3.060.69–3.450.82–6.51
Yellow cards
44%
19%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.372.154.53safe1.33–3.421.02–3.282.35–6.70safer1.06–3.690.73–3.571.79–7.26
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.090.21safe0.00–0.280.00–0.270.00–0.55safer0.00–0.430.00–0.410.00–0.84
GK saves
56%
16%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.472.606.07safe2.03–4.901.04–4.163.08–9.06safer1.64–5.290.62–4.582.26–9.87
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.99 0.02–1.95 0.00–2.21 | 1.68 0.82–2.53 0.59–2.76 | 2.66 0.84–4.49 0.36–4.96 | 22% 24% 54% |
| Shots on target | 3.53 1.67–5.39 1.18–5.88 | 5.10 3.36–6.84 2.89–7.31 | 8.63 5.03–12.24 4.07–13.19 | 24% 64% |
| Total shots | 10.47 6.54–14.39 5.45–15.48 | 14.02 10.46–17.58 9.50–18.54 | 24.49 17.00–31.97 14.95–34.02 | 21% 73% |
| Shots in box | 6.05 3.10–8.99 2.28–9.82 | 9.30 6.62–11.98 5.88–12.72 | 15.35 9.73–20.97 8.16–22.54 | 17% 76% |
| Blocked shots | 2.97 1.09–4.85 0.54–5.39 | 3.39 1.74–5.05 1.25–5.54 | 6.36 2.83–9.90 1.79–10.93 | 35% 16% 49% |
| Corners | 3.99 1.77–6.20 1.20–6.77 | 4.82 2.82–6.82 2.28–7.35 | 8.80 4.59–13.02 3.48–14.13 | 33% 13% 54% |
| Possession % | 46.66 39.87–53.45 38.20–55.12 | 53.01 46.23–59.80 44.56–61.47 | — | 33% 62% |
| Passes | 431 363–498 345–516 | 481 414–547 397–565 | 912 778–1045 742–1081 | 34% 66% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.13 78.10–86.16 76.81–87.46 | 84.46 80.13–88.78 78.82–90.09 | — | 36% 59% |
| Fouls | 13.07 10.23–15.91 9.48–16.66 | 13.10 10.15–16.04 9.40–16.79 | 26.17 20.39–31.95 18.88–33.46 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.44–2.76 0.14–3.06 | 2.07 0.98–3.16 0.69–3.45 | 3.67 1.41–5.92 0.82–6.51 | 30% 21% 49% |
| Yellow cards | 2.37 1.33–3.42 1.06–3.69 | 2.15 1.02–3.28 0.73–3.57 | 4.53 2.35–6.70 1.79–7.26 | 44% 19% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.21 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.47 2.03–4.90 1.64–5.29 | 2.60 1.04–4.16 0.62–4.58 | 6.07 3.08–9.06 2.26–9.87 | 56% 16% 29% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.