Predicted match statistics
Goals
24%
24%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.071.672.74safe0.10–2.040.82–2.530.92–4.57safer0.00–2.290.59–2.750.44–5.05
Shots on target
37%
14%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.834.298.12safe1.96–5.692.55–6.044.52–11.73safer1.48–6.182.09–6.503.56–12.68
Total shots
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0512.7023.76safe7.13–14.989.14–16.2716.27–31.24safer6.04–16.078.18–17.2314.22–33.29
Shots in box
33%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction7.118.3415.45safe4.16–10.055.66–11.029.82–21.07safer3.33–10.884.92–11.768.26–22.64
Blocked shots
30%
15%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.793.606.39safe0.91–4.671.94–5.252.85–9.92safer0.37–5.221.45–5.741.82–10.96
Corners
30%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.904.938.83safe1.69–6.122.93–6.934.62–13.04safer1.11–6.692.40–7.463.51–14.15
Possession %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction45.8854.72safe39.09–52.6747.94–61.51safer37.42–54.3446.27–63.18
Passes
28%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction423492915safe356–491425–558781–1049safer338–509408–576746–1084
Pass accuracy %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction79.2980.97safe75.26–83.3276.64–85.29safer73.97–84.6175.33–86.60
Fouls
35%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0114.5827.60safe10.17–15.8511.64–17.5321.81–33.38safer9.42–16.6110.89–18.2820.31–34.88
Offsides
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.823.59safe0.62–2.940.72–2.911.34–5.85safer0.32–3.240.44–3.200.75–6.44
Yellow cards
32%
19%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.082.564.64safe1.03–3.131.43–3.692.47–6.82safer0.77–3.401.14–3.981.91–7.38
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
48%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.022.615.62safe1.58–4.451.05–4.162.63–8.62safer1.19–4.840.63–4.591.82–9.43
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.07 0.10–2.04 0.00–2.29 | 1.67 0.82–2.53 0.59–2.75 | 2.74 0.92–4.57 0.44–5.05 | 24% 24% 51% |
| Shots on target | 3.83 1.96–5.69 1.48–6.18 | 4.29 2.55–6.04 2.09–6.50 | 8.12 4.52–11.73 3.56–12.68 | 37% 14% 49% |
| Total shots | 11.05 7.13–14.98 6.04–16.07 | 12.70 9.14–16.27 8.18–17.23 | 23.76 16.27–31.24 14.22–33.29 | 33% 59% |
| Shots in box | 7.11 4.16–10.05 3.33–10.88 | 8.34 5.66–11.02 4.92–11.76 | 15.45 9.82–21.07 8.26–22.64 | 33% 57% |
| Blocked shots | 2.79 0.91–4.67 0.37–5.22 | 3.60 1.94–5.25 1.45–5.74 | 6.39 2.85–9.92 1.82–10.96 | 30% 15% 55% |
| Corners | 3.90 1.69–6.12 1.11–6.69 | 4.93 2.93–6.93 2.40–7.46 | 8.83 4.62–13.04 3.51–14.15 | 30% 57% |
| Possession % | 45.88 39.09–52.67 37.42–54.34 | 54.72 47.94–61.51 46.27–63.18 | — | 28% 68% |
| Passes | 423 356–491 338–509 | 492 425–558 408–576 | 915 781–1049 746–1084 | 28% 71% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.29 75.26–83.32 73.97–84.61 | 80.97 76.64–85.29 75.33–86.60 | — | 39% 56% |
| Fouls | 13.01 10.17–15.85 9.42–16.61 | 14.58 11.64–17.53 10.89–18.28 | 27.60 21.81–33.38 20.31–34.88 | 35% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.78 0.62–2.94 0.32–3.24 | 1.82 0.72–2.91 0.44–3.20 | 3.59 1.34–5.85 0.75–6.44 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 2.08 1.03–3.13 0.77–3.40 | 2.56 1.43–3.69 1.14–3.98 | 4.64 2.47–6.82 1.91–7.38 | 32% 19% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.02 1.58–4.45 1.19–4.84 | 2.61 1.05–4.16 0.63–4.59 | 5.62 2.63–8.62 1.82–9.43 | 48% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.