Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
26%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.222.62safe0.43–2.370.37–2.080.80–4.44safer0.18–2.620.14–2.300.32–4.92
Shots on target
45%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.464.338.79safe2.60–6.322.59–6.075.19–12.40safer2.11–6.812.12–6.544.23–13.35
Total shots
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9612.3826.33safe10.03–17.888.82–15.9418.85–33.82safer8.94–18.977.86–16.9016.80–35.87
Shots in box
50%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction8.027.5015.52safe5.07–10.964.82–10.189.89–21.14safer4.24–11.794.08–10.928.33–22.71
Blocked shots
48%
16%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.383.016.39safe1.50–5.271.35–4.662.85–9.93safer0.96–5.810.86–5.151.82–10.96
Corners
52%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.274.609.86safe3.05–7.482.60–6.605.65–14.07safer2.48–8.052.06–7.134.54–15.18
Possession %
42%
54%
homeawayprediction48.9551.57safe42.16–55.7444.79–58.35safer40.49–57.4143.11–60.03
Passes
45%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction455469924safe388–523402–535790–1058safer370–541385–553755–1093
Pass accuracy %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction84.4484.75safe80.41–88.4780.43–89.08safer79.12–89.7679.12–90.39
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9711.6423.61safe9.13–14.818.70–14.5917.83–29.39safer8.38–15.567.95–15.3416.33–30.90
Offsides
52%
21%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction2.111.473.58safe0.95–3.270.38–2.571.33–5.84safer0.65–3.570.09–2.850.74–6.43
Yellow cards
33%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.682.023.70safe0.63–2.730.89–3.151.52–5.88safer0.36–2.990.60–3.440.96–6.43
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.883.085.96safe1.44–4.311.52–4.642.97–8.95safer1.05–4.701.10–5.062.15–9.76
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.43–2.37 0.18–2.62 | 1.22 0.37–2.08 0.14–2.30 | 2.62 0.80–4.44 0.32–4.92 | 41% 26% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.46 2.60–6.32 2.11–6.81 | 4.33 2.59–6.07 2.12–6.54 | 8.79 5.19–12.40 4.23–13.35 | 45% 14% 41% |
| Total shots | 13.96 10.03–17.88 8.94–18.97 | 12.38 8.82–15.94 7.86–16.90 | 26.33 18.85–33.82 16.80–35.87 | 58% 34% |
| Shots in box | 8.02 5.07–10.96 4.24–11.79 | 7.50 4.82–10.18 4.08–10.92 | 15.52 9.89–21.14 8.33–22.71 | 50% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 3.38 1.50–5.27 0.96–5.81 | 3.01 1.35–4.66 0.86–5.15 | 6.39 2.85–9.93 1.82–10.96 | 48% 16% 36% |
| Corners | 5.27 3.05–7.48 2.48–8.05 | 4.60 2.60–6.60 2.06–7.13 | 9.86 5.65–14.07 4.54–15.18 | 52% 35% |
| Possession % | 48.95 42.16–55.74 40.49–57.41 | 51.57 44.79–58.35 43.11–60.03 | — | 42% 54% |
| Passes | 455 388–523 370–541 | 469 402–535 385–553 | 924 790–1058 755–1093 | 45% 54% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.44 80.41–88.47 79.12–89.76 | 84.75 80.43–89.08 79.12–90.39 | — | 46% 49% |
| Fouls | 11.97 9.13–14.81 8.38–15.56 | 11.64 8.70–14.59 7.95–15.34 | 23.61 17.83–29.39 16.33–30.90 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 2.11 0.95–3.27 0.65–3.57 | 1.47 0.38–2.57 0.09–2.85 | 3.58 1.33–5.84 0.74–6.43 | 52% 21% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.68 0.63–2.73 0.36–2.99 | 2.02 0.89–3.15 0.60–3.44 | 3.70 1.52–5.88 0.96–6.43 | 33% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.88 1.44–4.31 1.05–4.70 | 3.08 1.52–4.64 1.10–5.06 | 5.96 2.97–8.95 2.15–9.76 | 38% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.