Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
26%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.221.462.68safe0.26–2.190.60–2.310.86–4.50safer0.00–2.440.37–2.540.38–4.98
Shots on target
38%
13%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.294.678.96safe2.43–6.162.92–6.415.35–12.56safer1.94–6.652.46–6.874.40–13.52
Total shots
59%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9812.3226.30safe10.05–17.908.76–15.8918.81–33.79safer8.96–18.997.80–16.8416.76–35.84
Shots in box
48%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction8.888.5717.45safe5.94–11.825.88–11.2511.82–23.07safer5.11–12.655.15–11.9810.26–24.64
Blocked shots
51%
15%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.803.217.00safe1.91–5.681.56–4.863.47–10.54safer1.37–6.221.06–5.352.43–11.57
Corners
54%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.424.6210.05safe3.21–7.632.62–6.625.83–14.26safer2.63–8.212.09–7.164.72–15.37
Possession %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction45.5754.27safe38.78–52.3647.49–61.05safer37.11–54.0345.81–62.73
Passes
20%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction390490880safe323–458424–556747–1014safer305–476406–574711–1050
Pass accuracy %
29%
66%
homeawayprediction80.9284.66safe76.89–84.9580.34–88.99safer75.59–86.2479.03–90.30
Fouls
69%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8010.8724.67safe10.96–16.637.92–13.8118.88–30.45safer10.20–17.397.18–14.5617.38–31.95
Offsides
16%
17%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction1.242.663.90safe0.08–2.401.57–3.761.65–6.16safer0.00–2.701.28–4.041.06–6.74
Yellow cards
43%
21%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.041.883.92safe0.99–3.090.75–3.011.74–6.10safer0.72–3.350.46–3.301.18–6.65
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.080.18safe0.00–0.270.00–0.260.00–0.53safer0.00–0.420.00–0.400.00–0.81
GK saves
41%
16%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.043.106.14safe1.61–4.481.54–4.653.15–9.13safer1.22–4.871.12–5.082.34–9.95
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 0.26–2.19 0.00–2.44 | 1.46 0.60–2.31 0.37–2.54 | 2.68 0.86–4.50 0.38–4.98 | 32% 26% 43% |
| Shots on target | 4.29 2.43–6.16 1.94–6.65 | 4.67 2.92–6.41 2.46–6.87 | 8.96 5.35–12.56 4.40–13.52 | 38% 13% 48% |
| Total shots | 13.98 10.05–17.90 8.96–18.99 | 12.32 8.76–15.89 7.80–16.84 | 26.30 18.81–33.79 16.76–35.84 | 59% 34% |
| Shots in box | 8.88 5.94–11.82 5.11–12.65 | 8.57 5.88–11.25 5.15–11.98 | 17.45 11.82–23.07 10.26–24.64 | 48% 42% |
| Blocked shots | 3.80 1.91–5.68 1.37–6.22 | 3.21 1.56–4.86 1.06–5.35 | 7.00 3.47–10.54 2.43–11.57 | 51% 15% 34% |
| Corners | 5.42 3.21–7.63 2.63–8.21 | 4.62 2.62–6.62 2.09–7.16 | 10.05 5.83–14.26 4.72–15.37 | 54% 34% |
| Possession % | 45.57 38.78–52.36 37.11–54.03 | 54.27 47.49–61.05 45.81–62.73 | — | 28% 68% |
| Passes | 390 323–458 305–476 | 490 424–556 406–574 | 880 747–1014 711–1050 | 20% 80% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.92 76.89–84.95 75.59–86.24 | 84.66 80.34–88.99 79.03–90.30 | — | 29% 66% |
| Fouls | 13.80 10.96–16.63 10.20–17.39 | 10.87 7.92–13.81 7.18–14.56 | 24.67 18.88–30.45 17.38–31.95 | 69% 24% |
| Offsides | 1.24 0.08–2.40 0.00–2.70 | 2.66 1.57–3.76 1.28–4.04 | 3.90 1.65–6.16 1.06–6.74 | 16% 17% 68% |
| Yellow cards | 2.04 0.99–3.09 0.72–3.35 | 1.88 0.75–3.01 0.46–3.30 | 3.92 1.74–6.10 1.18–6.65 | 43% 21% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.04 1.61–4.48 1.22–4.87 | 3.10 1.54–4.65 1.12–5.08 | 6.14 3.15–9.13 2.34–9.95 | 41% 16% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.