Serie A·Regular Season - 15·
Serie A·Regular Season - 15·Predicted match statistics
Goals
23%
25%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction0.991.642.64safe0.03–1.960.79–2.500.82–4.46safer0.00–2.210.56–2.730.34–4.94
Shots on target
26%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction3.474.838.31safe1.61–5.343.09–6.584.70–11.91safer1.12–5.832.63–7.043.75–12.87
Total shots
20%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4614.0624.52safe6.54–14.3910.50–17.6217.03–32.01safer5.45–15.489.54–18.5814.98–34.06
Shots in box
27%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction7.049.0116.05safe4.10–9.986.33–11.6910.42–21.67safer3.27–10.815.59–12.438.86–23.24
Blocked shots
30%
15%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.983.856.82safe1.10–4.862.19–5.503.29–10.36safer0.55–5.401.70–5.992.25–11.39
Corners
35%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.515.219.71safe2.29–6.723.21–7.215.50–13.93safer1.72–7.292.68–7.744.39–15.04
Possession %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction48.5750.87safe41.78–55.3644.09–57.65safer40.11–57.0342.41–59.33
Passes
45%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction420434854safe352–487368–501720–988safer334–505350–518685–1023
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction80.0077.70safe75.97–84.0373.38–82.03safer74.68–85.3272.07–83.34
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8513.4225.27safe9.01–14.6910.47–16.3619.48–31.05safer8.26–15.449.72–17.1117.98–32.55
Offsides
37%
24%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.533.03safe0.34–2.660.43–2.620.78–5.28safer0.04–2.960.15–2.910.19–5.87
Yellow cards
37%
21%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.852.003.86safe0.81–2.900.87–3.131.68–6.04safer0.54–3.170.58–3.421.12–6.59
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.18safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
54%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.272.505.76safe1.83–4.700.94–4.052.77–8.75safer1.44–5.090.52–4.481.96–9.57
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.99 0.03–1.96 0.00–2.21 | 1.64 0.79–2.50 0.56–2.73 | 2.64 0.82–4.46 0.34–4.94 | 23% 25% 53% |
| Shots on target | 3.47 1.61–5.34 1.12–5.83 | 4.83 3.09–6.58 2.63–7.04 | 8.31 4.70–11.91 3.75–12.87 | 26% 62% |
| Total shots | 10.46 6.54–14.39 5.45–15.48 | 14.06 10.50–17.62 9.54–18.58 | 24.52 17.03–32.01 14.98–34.06 | 20% 73% |
| Shots in box | 7.04 4.10–9.98 3.27–10.81 | 9.01 6.33–11.69 5.59–12.43 | 16.05 10.42–21.67 8.86–23.24 | 27% 64% |
| Blocked shots | 2.98 1.10–4.86 0.55–5.40 | 3.85 2.19–5.50 1.70–5.99 | 6.82 3.29–10.36 2.25–11.39 | 30% 15% 55% |
| Corners | 4.51 2.29–6.72 1.72–7.29 | 5.21 3.21–7.21 2.68–7.74 | 9.71 5.50–13.93 4.39–15.04 | 35% 53% |
| Possession % | 48.57 41.78–55.36 40.11–57.03 | 50.87 44.09–57.65 42.41–59.33 | — | 42% 53% |
| Passes | 420 352–487 334–505 | 434 368–501 350–518 | 854 720–988 685–1023 | 45% 55% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.00 75.97–84.03 74.68–85.32 | 77.70 73.38–82.03 72.07–83.34 | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 11.85 9.01–14.69 8.26–15.44 | 13.42 10.47–16.36 9.72–17.11 | 25.27 19.48–31.05 17.98–32.55 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.50 0.34–2.66 0.04–2.96 | 1.53 0.43–2.62 0.15–2.91 | 3.03 0.78–5.28 0.19–5.87 | 37% 24% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.85 0.81–2.90 0.54–3.17 | 2.00 0.87–3.13 0.58–3.42 | 3.86 1.68–6.04 1.12–6.59 | 37% 21% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.27 1.83–4.70 1.44–5.09 | 2.50 0.94–4.05 0.52–4.48 | 5.76 2.77–8.75 1.96–9.57 | 54% 16% 30% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.