Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
23%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.363.09safe0.76–2.700.51–2.221.27–4.92safer0.51–2.950.28–2.450.79–5.40
Shots on target
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.074.359.42safe3.20–6.932.61–6.095.81–13.02safer2.71–7.422.14–6.564.86–13.98
Total shots
72%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0311.5726.60safe11.11–18.958.01–15.1419.12–34.09safer10.01–20.057.05–16.0917.06–36.14
Shots in box
74%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction10.086.8816.95safe7.14–13.024.20–9.5611.33–22.58safer6.31–13.853.46–10.299.76–24.14
Blocked shots
42%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.383.386.76safe1.50–5.261.73–5.033.23–10.30safer0.95–5.811.24–5.532.19–11.33
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.344.099.43safe3.12–7.552.09–6.095.21–13.64safer2.55–8.121.56–6.624.11–14.75
Possession %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction51.8948.78safe45.10–58.6842.00–55.57safer43.43–60.3540.32–57.24
Passes
55%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction475461936safe408–542394–527802–1070safer390–561377–545767–1105
Pass accuracy %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction84.5083.10safe80.47–88.5378.77–87.42safer79.18–89.8277.46–88.73
Fouls
27%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0512.5022.55safe7.21–12.889.56–15.4516.77–28.33safer6.45–13.648.81–16.1915.26–29.84
Offsides
49%
17%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.952.475.42safe1.79–4.111.38–3.563.17–7.67safer1.49–4.411.09–3.852.58–8.26
Yellow cards
35%
19%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.102.384.49safe1.06–3.151.25–3.512.31–6.66safer0.79–3.420.96–3.801.75–7.22
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.100.21safe0.00–0.270.00–0.290.00–0.56safer0.00–0.420.00–0.420.00–0.84
GK saves
34%
16%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.823.316.14safe1.39–4.261.76–4.873.15–9.13safer1.00–4.651.33–5.292.33–9.94
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 0.76–2.70 0.51–2.95 | 1.36 0.51–2.22 0.28–2.45 | 3.09 1.27–4.92 0.79–5.40 | 46% 23% 30% |
| Shots on target | 5.07 3.20–6.93 2.71–7.42 | 4.35 2.61–6.09 2.14–6.56 | 9.42 5.81–13.02 4.86–13.98 | 53% 34% |
| Total shots | 15.03 11.11–18.95 10.01–20.05 | 11.57 8.01–15.14 7.05–16.09 | 26.60 19.12–34.09 17.06–36.14 | 72% 22% |
| Shots in box | 10.08 7.14–13.02 6.31–13.85 | 6.88 4.20–9.56 3.46–10.29 | 16.95 11.33–22.58 9.76–24.14 | 74% 18% |
| Blocked shots | 3.38 1.50–5.26 0.95–5.81 | 3.38 1.73–5.03 1.24–5.53 | 6.76 3.23–10.30 2.19–11.33 | 42% 16% 42% |
| Corners | 5.34 3.12–7.55 2.55–8.12 | 4.09 2.09–6.09 1.56–6.62 | 9.43 5.21–13.64 4.11–14.75 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 51.89 45.10–58.68 43.43–60.35 | 48.78 42.00–55.57 40.32–57.24 | — | 55% 40% |
| Passes | 475 408–542 390–561 | 461 394–527 377–545 | 936 802–1070 767–1105 | 55% 45% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.50 80.47–88.53 79.18–89.82 | 83.10 78.77–87.42 77.46–88.73 | — | 55% 40% |
| Fouls | 10.05 7.21–12.88 6.45–13.64 | 12.50 9.56–15.45 8.81–16.19 | 22.55 16.77–28.33 15.26–29.84 | 27% 66% |
| Offsides | 2.95 1.79–4.11 1.49–4.41 | 2.47 1.38–3.56 1.09–3.85 | 5.42 3.17–7.67 2.58–8.26 | 49% 17% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 2.10 1.06–3.15 0.79–3.42 | 2.38 1.25–3.51 0.96–3.80 | 4.49 2.31–6.66 1.75–7.22 | 35% 19% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.82 1.39–4.26 1.00–4.65 | 3.31 1.76–4.87 1.33–5.29 | 6.14 3.15–9.13 2.33–9.94 | 34% 16% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+