Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
27%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.122.51safe0.42–2.360.26–1.970.69–4.33safer0.17–2.610.03–2.200.21–4.81
Shots on target
56%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.593.618.20safe2.72–6.451.87–5.364.59–11.80safer2.23–6.941.40–5.823.64–12.76
Total shots
70%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4710.4723.94safe9.55–17.406.91–14.0416.46–31.43safer8.46–18.495.95–14.9914.41–33.48
Shots in box
70%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction8.886.3315.21safe5.94–11.823.65–9.029.59–20.84safer5.11–12.652.92–9.758.02–22.40
Blocked shots
64%
14%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction3.922.536.45safe2.04–5.810.88–4.182.92–9.99safer1.50–6.350.38–4.671.88–11.02
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.153.828.97safe2.94–7.361.82–5.824.75–13.18safer2.36–7.941.29–6.353.65–14.29
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction54.9146.10safe48.12–61.7039.32–52.89safer46.45–63.3737.65–54.56
Passes
74%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction501423923safe433–568356–489789–1057safer415–586339–507754–1092
Pass accuracy %
70%
25%
homeawayprediction77.1572.49safe73.12–81.1868.17–76.82safer71.82–82.4766.86–78.13
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0913.5225.61safe9.25–14.9310.57–16.4619.82–31.39safer8.50–15.689.82–17.2118.32–32.89
Offsides
38%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.763.50safe0.58–2.900.67–2.861.25–5.75safer0.28–3.200.38–3.150.66–6.34
Yellow cards
30%
20%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.812.334.15safe0.77–2.861.20–3.461.97–6.33safer0.50–3.130.91–3.751.41–6.88
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.603.015.61safe1.16–4.031.46–4.572.62–8.60safer0.77–4.421.03–4.991.80–9.41
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.39 0.42–2.36 0.17–2.61 | 1.12 0.26–1.97 0.03–2.20 | 2.51 0.69–4.33 0.21–4.81 | 43% 27% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.59 2.72–6.45 2.23–6.94 | 3.61 1.87–5.36 1.40–5.82 | 8.20 4.59–11.80 3.64–12.76 | 56% 13% 30% |
| Total shots | 13.47 9.55–17.40 8.46–18.49 | 10.47 6.91–14.04 5.95–14.99 | 23.94 16.46–31.43 14.41–33.48 | 70% 24% |
| Shots in box | 8.88 5.94–11.82 5.11–12.65 | 6.33 3.65–9.02 2.92–9.75 | 15.21 9.59–20.84 8.02–22.40 | 70% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 3.92 2.04–5.81 1.50–6.35 | 2.53 0.88–4.18 0.38–4.67 | 6.45 2.92–9.99 1.88–11.02 | 64% 14% 22% |
| Corners | 5.15 2.94–7.36 2.36–7.94 | 3.82 1.82–5.82 1.29–6.35 | 8.97 4.75–13.18 3.65–14.29 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 54.91 48.12–61.70 46.45–63.37 | 46.10 39.32–52.89 37.65–54.56 | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 501 433–568 415–586 | 423 356–489 339–507 | 923 789–1057 754–1092 | 74% 26% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.15 73.12–81.18 71.82–82.47 | 72.49 68.17–76.82 66.86–78.13 | — | 70% 25% |
| Fouls | 12.09 9.25–14.93 8.50–15.68 | 13.52 10.57–16.46 9.82–17.21 | 25.61 19.82–31.39 18.32–32.89 | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.74 0.58–2.90 0.28–3.20 | 1.76 0.67–2.86 0.38–3.15 | 3.50 1.25–5.75 0.66–6.34 | 38% 22% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 0.77–2.86 0.50–3.13 | 2.33 1.20–3.46 0.91–3.75 | 4.15 1.97–6.33 1.41–6.88 | 30% 20% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.60 1.16–4.03 0.77–4.42 | 3.01 1.46–4.57 1.03–4.99 | 5.61 2.62–8.60 1.80–9.41 | 35% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.