Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
24%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.483.08safe0.64–2.570.62–2.331.26–4.90safer0.38–2.820.39–2.560.78–5.38
Shots on target
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.684.179.85safe3.82–7.542.43–5.916.24–13.45safer3.33–8.031.96–6.385.29–14.41
Total shots
82%
homeawaytotalprediction16.4711.0827.55safe12.54–20.397.52–14.6520.06–35.04safer11.45–21.486.56–15.6018.01–37.09
Shots in box
70%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction10.938.1019.03safe7.99–13.875.42–10.7813.41–24.66safer7.16–14.704.68–11.5211.84–26.22
Blocked shots
67%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.823.077.89safe2.93–6.701.42–4.734.35–11.42safer2.39–7.240.93–5.223.32–12.46
Corners
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction5.914.1710.09safe3.70–8.132.17–6.175.87–14.30safer3.13–8.701.64–6.714.77–15.41
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction54.4545.66safe47.66–61.2438.87–52.44safer45.99–62.9137.20–54.12
Passes
71%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction524457981safe457–591390–523847–1114safer439–609373–541811–1150
Pass accuracy %
79%
18%
homeawayprediction85.6878.97safe81.65–89.7174.65–83.30safer80.36–91.0073.34–84.61
Fouls
34%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction9.8811.2321.11safe7.04–12.728.29–14.1815.33–26.90safer6.29–13.477.54–14.9313.83–28.40
Offsides
24%
21%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.312.033.34safe0.15–2.470.94–3.121.08–5.59safer0.00–2.770.65–3.410.49–6.18
Yellow cards
28%
23%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.823.15safe0.28–2.380.69–2.940.97–5.33safer0.02–2.650.40–3.240.41–5.88
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.12safe0.00–0.220.00–0.250.00–0.47safer0.00–0.370.00–0.380.00–0.75
GK saves
24%
14%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.593.906.50safe1.16–4.032.35–5.463.51–9.49safer0.77–4.421.92–5.892.69–10.30
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.60 0.64–2.57 0.38–2.82 | 1.48 0.62–2.33 0.39–2.56 | 3.08 1.26–4.90 0.78–5.38 | 41% 24% 35% |
| Shots on target | 5.68 3.82–7.54 3.33–8.03 | 4.17 2.43–5.91 1.96–6.38 | 9.85 6.24–13.45 5.29–14.41 | 63% 26% |
| Total shots | 16.47 12.54–20.39 11.45–21.48 | 11.08 7.52–14.65 6.56–15.60 | 27.55 20.06–35.04 18.01–37.09 | 82% |
| Shots in box | 10.93 7.99–13.87 7.16–14.70 | 8.10 5.42–10.78 4.68–11.52 | 19.03 13.41–24.66 11.84–26.22 | 70% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 4.82 2.93–6.70 2.39–7.24 | 3.07 1.42–4.73 0.93–5.22 | 7.89 4.35–11.42 3.32–12.46 | 67% 21% |
| Corners | 5.91 3.70–8.13 3.13–8.70 | 4.17 2.17–6.17 1.64–6.71 | 10.09 5.87–14.30 4.77–15.41 | 65% 24% |
| Possession % | 54.45 47.66–61.24 45.99–62.91 | 45.66 38.87–52.44 37.20–54.12 | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 524 457–591 439–609 | 457 390–523 373–541 | 981 847–1114 811–1150 | 71% 29% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.68 81.65–89.71 80.36–91.00 | 78.97 74.65–83.30 73.34–84.61 | — | 79% 18% |
| Fouls | 9.88 7.04–12.72 6.29–13.47 | 11.23 8.29–14.18 7.54–14.93 | 21.11 15.33–26.90 13.83–28.40 | 34% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.31 0.15–2.47 0.00–2.77 | 2.03 0.94–3.12 0.65–3.41 | 3.34 1.08–5.59 0.49–6.18 | 24% 21% 54% |
| Yellow cards | 1.33 0.28–2.38 0.02–2.65 | 1.82 0.69–2.94 0.40–3.24 | 3.15 0.97–5.33 0.41–5.88 | 28% 23% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.38 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.59 1.16–4.03 0.77–4.42 | 3.90 2.35–5.46 1.92–5.89 | 6.50 3.51–9.49 2.69–10.30 | 24% 14% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.