Serie A·Regular Season - 16·
Serie A·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
28%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.171.182.35safe0.20–2.140.32–2.030.52–4.17safer0.00–2.390.09–2.260.04–4.65
Shots on target
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.183.908.08safe2.32–6.042.16–5.654.48–11.69safer1.83–6.531.70–6.113.52–12.64
Total shots
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9511.1024.05safe9.02–16.877.54–14.6616.56–31.54safer7.93–17.966.58–15.6214.51–33.59
Shots in box
56%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction8.217.1615.37safe5.27–11.164.48–9.849.75–21.00safer4.44–11.993.74–10.588.18–22.56
Blocked shots
51%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.633.036.66safe1.75–5.511.37–4.683.12–10.19safer1.21–6.060.88–5.172.09–11.23
Corners
52%
13%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.904.259.15safe2.68–7.112.25–6.254.94–13.36safer2.11–7.681.72–6.793.83–14.47
Possession %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction46.0654.02safe39.27–52.8547.24–60.81safer37.60–54.5245.57–62.48
Passes
22%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction389481870safe322–456415–547736–1004safer304–474397–565700–1039
Pass accuracy %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction76.7782.03safe72.74–80.7977.71–86.36safer71.44–82.0976.40–87.66
Fouls
48%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7013.5127.22safe10.87–16.5410.57–16.4621.43–33.00safer10.11–17.309.82–17.2119.93–34.50
Offsides
40%
25%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.422.93safe0.35–2.670.33–2.510.68–5.18safer0.05–2.970.04–2.800.09–5.77
Yellow cards
44%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.312.114.41safe1.26–3.360.98–3.232.23–6.59safer0.99–3.620.69–3.531.68–7.15
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.19safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
33%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.613.125.73safe1.18–4.051.56–4.672.74–8.72safer0.79–4.441.14–5.101.93–9.54
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 0.20–2.14 0.00–2.39 | 1.18 0.32–2.03 0.09–2.26 | 2.35 0.52–4.17 0.04–4.65 | 36% 28% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.18 2.32–6.04 1.83–6.53 | 3.90 2.16–5.65 1.70–6.11 | 8.08 4.48–11.69 3.52–12.64 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Total shots | 12.95 9.02–16.87 7.93–17.96 | 11.10 7.54–14.66 6.58–15.62 | 24.05 16.56–31.54 14.51–33.59 | 61% 32% |
| Shots in box | 8.21 5.27–11.16 4.44–11.99 | 7.16 4.48–9.84 3.74–10.58 | 15.37 9.75–21.00 8.18–22.56 | 56% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 3.63 1.75–5.51 1.21–6.06 | 3.03 1.37–4.68 0.88–5.17 | 6.66 3.12–10.19 2.09–11.23 | 51% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 4.90 2.68–7.11 2.11–7.68 | 4.25 2.25–6.25 1.72–6.79 | 9.15 4.94–13.36 3.83–14.47 | 52% 13% 35% |
| Possession % | 46.06 39.27–52.85 37.60–54.52 | 54.02 47.24–60.81 45.57–62.48 | — | 30% 66% |
| Passes | 389 322–456 304–474 | 481 415–547 397–565 | 870 736–1004 700–1039 | 22% 78% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.77 72.74–80.79 71.44–82.09 | 82.03 77.71–86.36 76.40–87.66 | — | 23% 73% |
| Fouls | 13.70 10.87–16.54 10.11–17.30 | 13.51 10.57–16.46 9.82–17.21 | 27.22 21.43–33.00 19.93–34.50 | 48% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.51 0.35–2.67 0.05–2.97 | 1.42 0.33–2.51 0.04–2.80 | 2.93 0.68–5.18 0.09–5.77 | 40% 25% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 2.31 1.26–3.36 0.99–3.62 | 2.11 0.98–3.23 0.69–3.53 | 4.41 2.23–6.59 1.68–7.15 | 44% 20% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.61 1.18–4.05 0.79–4.44 | 3.12 1.56–4.67 1.14–5.10 | 5.73 2.74–8.72 1.93–9.54 | 33% 17% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.