Serie A·Regular Season - 17·
Serie A·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
49%
26%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.480.982.46safe0.51–2.450.12–1.830.64–4.28safer0.26–2.700.00–2.060.16–4.76
Shots on target
60%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.903.668.56safe3.04–6.761.92–5.404.96–12.17safer2.55–7.251.45–5.874.00–13.12
Total shots
78%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5310.2224.75safe10.60–18.456.66–13.7917.27–32.24safer9.51–19.555.70–14.7515.22–34.29
Shots in box
77%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction9.906.4116.32safe6.96–12.853.73–9.0910.69–21.94safer6.13–13.682.99–9.839.13–23.51
Blocked shots
56%
14%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.033.127.15safe2.15–5.911.47–4.783.62–10.69safer1.60–6.450.98–5.272.58–11.72
Corners
58%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.274.119.38safe3.06–7.482.11–6.115.16–13.59safer2.48–8.061.57–6.644.06–14.70
Possession %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction47.2453.56safe40.45–54.0346.78–60.35safer38.78–55.7045.10–62.02
Passes
32%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction416471887safe349–484404–537754–1021safer331–502387–555718–1057
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction76.9782.35safe72.94–81.0078.03–86.68safer71.65–82.2976.72–87.99
Fouls
58%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0012.5226.52safe11.16–16.849.58–15.4720.74–32.30safer10.41–17.608.83–16.2119.24–33.81
Offsides
47%
25%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.192.77safe0.42–2.740.09–2.280.51–5.02safer0.12–3.040.00–2.570.00–5.61
Yellow cards
46%
20%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.241.944.17safe1.19–3.290.81–3.061.99–6.35safer0.92–3.550.52–3.361.44–6.91
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.280.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
27%
16%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.443.415.86safe1.01–3.881.86–4.972.87–8.85safer0.62–4.271.43–5.392.05–9.66
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.51–2.45 0.26–2.70 | 0.98 0.12–1.83 0.00–2.06 | 2.46 0.64–4.28 0.16–4.76 | 49% 26% 25% |
| Shots on target | 4.90 3.04–6.76 2.55–7.25 | 3.66 1.92–5.40 1.45–5.87 | 8.56 4.96–12.17 4.00–13.12 | 60% 27% |
| Total shots | 14.53 10.60–18.45 9.51–19.55 | 10.22 6.66–13.79 5.70–14.75 | 24.75 17.27–32.24 15.22–34.29 | 78% 17% |
| Shots in box | 9.90 6.96–12.85 6.13–13.68 | 6.41 3.73–9.09 2.99–9.83 | 16.32 10.69–21.94 9.13–23.51 | 77% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 4.03 2.15–5.91 1.60–6.45 | 3.12 1.47–4.78 0.98–5.27 | 7.15 3.62–10.69 2.58–11.72 | 56% 14% 30% |
| Corners | 5.27 3.06–7.48 2.48–8.06 | 4.11 2.11–6.11 1.57–6.64 | 9.38 5.16–13.59 4.06–14.70 | 58% 29% |
| Possession % | 47.24 40.45–54.03 38.78–55.70 | 53.56 46.78–60.35 45.10–62.02 | — | 33% 62% |
| Passes | 416 349–484 331–502 | 471 404–537 387–555 | 887 754–1021 718–1057 | 32% 67% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.97 72.94–81.00 71.65–82.29 | 82.35 78.03–86.68 76.72–87.99 | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 14.00 11.16–16.84 10.41–17.60 | 12.52 9.58–15.47 8.83–16.21 | 26.52 20.74–32.30 19.24–33.81 | 58% 35% |
| Offsides | 1.58 0.42–2.74 0.12–3.04 | 1.19 0.09–2.28 0.00–2.57 | 2.77 0.51–5.02 0.00–5.61 | 47% 25% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 2.24 1.19–3.29 0.92–3.55 | 1.94 0.81–3.06 0.52–3.36 | 4.17 1.99–6.35 1.44–6.91 | 46% 20% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.44 1.01–3.88 0.62–4.27 | 3.41 1.86–4.97 1.43–5.39 | 5.86 2.87–8.85 2.05–9.66 | 27% 16% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.