Predicted match statistics
Goals
29%
23%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.873.27safe0.43–2.371.02–2.721.45–5.09safer0.18–2.620.79–2.950.97–5.57
Shots on target
34%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction4.975.8310.80safe3.11–6.844.09–7.577.20–14.41safer2.62–7.333.62–8.046.24–15.36
Total shots
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0914.4828.57safe10.16–18.0110.92–18.0421.08–36.06safer9.07–19.109.96–19.0019.03–38.11
Shots in box
43%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction9.129.3518.47safe6.18–12.066.67–12.0312.85–24.09safer5.35–12.895.93–12.7711.28–25.66
Blocked shots
34%
15%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.383.987.36safe1.50–5.262.33–5.643.83–10.90safer0.95–5.801.84–6.132.79–11.93
Corners
43%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.045.1010.14safe2.83–7.263.10–7.105.93–14.36safer2.26–7.832.57–7.634.82–15.46
Possession %
32%
64%
homeawayprediction47.0254.04safe40.23–53.8147.26–60.83safer38.56–55.4845.59–62.50
Passes
27%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction441513954safe374–509447–579821–1088safer356–527429–597785–1124
Pass accuracy %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction82.1983.63safe78.16–86.2279.30–87.95safer76.87–87.5177.99–89.26
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7211.4522.17safe7.88–13.568.51–14.4016.39–27.95safer7.13–14.317.76–15.1514.89–29.46
Offsides
55%
17%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction2.862.054.92safe1.70–4.020.96–3.152.66–7.17safer1.40–4.320.67–3.432.07–7.76
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.863.45safe0.54–2.630.73–2.991.27–5.62safer0.27–2.900.44–3.280.71–6.18
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.260.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.410.00–0.390.00–0.79
GK saves
44%
15%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.543.436.97safe2.10–4.981.87–4.983.98–9.96safer1.72–5.361.45–5.413.16–10.77
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.43–2.37 0.18–2.62 | 1.87 1.02–2.72 0.79–2.95 | 3.27 1.45–5.09 0.97–5.57 | 29% 23% 49% |
| Shots on target | 4.97 3.11–6.84 2.62–7.33 | 5.83 4.09–7.57 3.62–8.04 | 10.80 7.20–14.41 6.24–15.36 | 34% 54% |
| Total shots | 14.09 10.16–18.01 9.07–19.10 | 14.48 10.92–18.04 9.96–19.00 | 28.57 21.08–36.06 19.03–38.11 | 43% 49% |
| Shots in box | 9.12 6.18–12.06 5.35–12.89 | 9.35 6.67–12.03 5.93–12.77 | 18.47 12.85–24.09 11.28–25.66 | 43% 47% |
| Blocked shots | 3.38 1.50–5.26 0.95–5.80 | 3.98 2.33–5.64 1.84–6.13 | 7.36 3.83–10.90 2.79–11.93 | 34% 15% 51% |
| Corners | 5.04 2.83–7.26 2.26–7.83 | 5.10 3.10–7.10 2.57–7.63 | 10.14 5.93–14.36 4.82–15.46 | 43% 44% |
| Possession % | 47.02 40.23–53.81 38.56–55.48 | 54.04 47.26–60.83 45.59–62.50 | — | 32% 64% |
| Passes | 441 374–509 356–527 | 513 447–579 429–597 | 954 821–1088 785–1124 | 27% 72% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.19 78.16–86.22 76.87–87.51 | 83.63 79.30–87.95 77.99–89.26 | — | 40% 55% |
| Fouls | 10.72 7.88–13.56 7.13–14.31 | 11.45 8.51–14.40 7.76–15.15 | 22.17 16.39–27.95 14.89–29.46 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 2.86 1.70–4.02 1.40–4.32 | 2.05 0.96–3.15 0.67–3.43 | 4.92 2.66–7.17 2.07–7.76 | 55% 17% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 0.54–2.63 0.27–2.90 | 1.86 0.73–2.99 0.44–3.28 | 3.45 1.27–5.62 0.71–6.18 | 33% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.54 2.10–4.98 1.72–5.36 | 3.43 1.87–4.98 1.45–5.41 | 6.97 3.98–9.96 3.16–10.77 | 44% 15% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.