Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
26%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.172.62safe0.48–2.420.31–2.020.80–4.44safer0.23–2.670.08–2.250.32–4.92
Shots on target
51%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.604.038.63safe2.74–6.462.29–5.785.03–12.24safer2.25–6.951.82–6.244.07–13.19
Total shots
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2811.9526.23safe10.36–18.218.39–15.5118.74–33.72safer9.27–19.307.43–16.4716.69–35.77
Shots in box
63%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction9.317.4316.74safe6.37–12.254.75–10.1111.11–22.36safer5.54–13.084.01–10.859.55–23.93
Blocked shots
52%
14%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.173.517.67safe2.28–6.051.85–5.164.14–11.21safer1.74–6.591.36–5.653.10–12.24
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.414.429.82safe3.19–7.622.42–6.425.61–14.04safer2.62–8.191.88–6.954.50–15.14
Possession %
61%
35%
homeawayprediction53.1547.61safe46.36–59.9440.82–54.39safer44.69–61.6139.15–56.06
Passes
66%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction435383818safe367–502317–450684–952safer349–520299–467649–987
Pass accuracy %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction74.9376.48safe70.90–78.9572.16–80.81safer69.60–80.2570.85–82.12
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3813.9626.34safe9.54–15.2111.02–16.9120.56–32.12safer8.78–15.9710.27–17.6519.05–33.62
Offsides
31%
23%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.793.22safe0.27–2.590.70–2.880.97–5.47safer0.00–2.890.41–3.170.38–6.06
Yellow cards
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.702.143.84safe0.66–2.751.01–3.271.66–6.02safer0.39–3.020.72–3.561.11–6.58
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.903.116.02safe1.47–4.341.56–4.673.03–9.01safer1.08–4.731.13–5.092.21–9.82
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.45 0.48–2.42 0.23–2.67 | 1.17 0.31–2.02 0.08–2.25 | 2.62 0.80–4.44 0.32–4.92 | 44% 26% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.60 2.74–6.46 2.25–6.95 | 4.03 2.29–5.78 1.82–6.24 | 8.63 5.03–12.24 4.07–13.19 | 51% 14% 36% |
| Total shots | 14.28 10.36–18.21 9.27–19.30 | 11.95 8.39–15.51 7.43–16.47 | 26.23 18.74–33.72 16.69–35.77 | 64% 29% |
| Shots in box | 9.31 6.37–12.25 5.54–13.08 | 7.43 4.75–10.11 4.01–10.85 | 16.74 11.11–22.36 9.55–23.93 | 63% 28% |
| Blocked shots | 4.17 2.28–6.05 1.74–6.59 | 3.51 1.85–5.16 1.36–5.65 | 7.67 4.14–11.21 3.10–12.24 | 52% 14% 34% |
| Corners | 5.41 3.19–7.62 2.62–8.19 | 4.42 2.42–6.42 1.88–6.95 | 9.82 5.61–14.04 4.50–15.14 | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 53.15 46.36–59.94 44.69–61.61 | 47.61 40.82–54.39 39.15–56.06 | — | 61% 35% |
| Passes | 435 367–502 349–520 | 383 317–450 299–467 | 818 684–952 649–987 | 66% 33% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.93 70.90–78.95 69.60–80.25 | 76.48 72.16–80.81 70.85–82.12 | — | 40% 55% |
| Fouls | 12.38 9.54–15.21 8.78–15.97 | 13.96 11.02–16.91 10.27–17.65 | 26.34 20.56–32.12 19.05–33.62 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.43 0.27–2.59 0.00–2.89 | 1.79 0.70–2.88 0.41–3.17 | 3.22 0.97–5.47 0.38–6.06 | 31% 23% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 0.66–2.75 0.39–3.02 | 2.14 1.01–3.27 0.72–3.56 | 3.84 1.66–6.02 1.11–6.58 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.90 1.47–4.34 1.08–4.73 | 3.11 1.56–4.67 1.13–5.09 | 6.02 3.03–9.01 2.21–9.82 | 38% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.