Predicted match statistics
Goals
47%
23%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.373.13safe0.80–2.730.51–2.221.31–4.96safer0.55–2.980.29–2.450.83–5.44
Shots on target
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.494.5810.07safe3.63–7.352.83–6.326.46–13.67safer3.14–7.842.37–6.785.51–14.63
Total shots
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4112.0826.49safe10.48–18.338.52–15.6519.00–33.98safer9.39–19.427.56–16.6116.95–36.03
Shots in box
61%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction9.908.1818.08safe6.96–12.855.50–10.8612.46–23.71safer6.13–13.684.76–11.6010.89–25.28
Blocked shots
59%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.193.077.26safe2.30–6.071.42–4.733.73–10.80safer1.76–6.610.93–5.222.69–11.83
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.644.249.88safe3.43–7.852.24–6.245.67–14.09safer2.85–8.431.71–6.784.56–15.20
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction59.9441.06safe53.15–66.7334.27–47.84safer51.48–68.4032.60–49.51
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction578400978safe510–645334–467844–1112safer492–663316–484809–1147
Pass accuracy %
84%
homeawayprediction86.4978.14safe82.46–90.5273.81–82.46safer81.17–91.8172.51–83.77
Fouls
19%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction9.2312.8522.09safe6.39–12.079.91–15.8016.30–27.87safer5.64–12.839.16–16.5514.80–29.37
Offsides
30%
21%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.652.143.79safe0.49–2.811.05–3.241.54–6.05safer0.19–3.110.76–3.520.95–6.64
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.963.49safe0.48–2.580.83–3.091.31–5.67safer0.21–2.840.54–3.380.75–6.22
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
38%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.183.446.61safe1.74–4.611.88–4.993.62–9.61safer1.35–5.001.46–5.422.81–10.42
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.76 0.80–2.73 0.55–2.98 | 1.37 0.51–2.22 0.29–2.45 | 3.13 1.31–4.96 0.83–5.44 | 47% 23% 30% |
| Shots on target | 5.49 3.63–7.35 3.14–7.84 | 4.58 2.83–6.32 2.37–6.78 | 10.07 6.46–13.67 5.51–14.63 | 55% 33% |
| Total shots | 14.41 10.48–18.33 9.39–19.42 | 12.08 8.52–15.65 7.56–16.61 | 26.49 19.00–33.98 16.95–36.03 | 64% 29% |
| Shots in box | 9.90 6.96–12.85 6.13–13.68 | 8.18 5.50–10.86 4.76–11.60 | 18.08 12.46–23.71 10.89–25.28 | 61% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 4.19 2.30–6.07 1.76–6.61 | 3.07 1.42–4.73 0.93–5.22 | 7.26 3.73–10.80 2.69–11.83 | 59% 14% 27% |
| Corners | 5.64 3.43–7.85 2.85–8.43 | 4.24 2.24–6.24 1.71–6.78 | 9.88 5.67–14.09 4.56–15.20 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 59.94 53.15–66.73 51.48–68.40 | 41.06 34.27–47.84 32.60–49.51 | — | 85% |
| Passes | 578 510–645 492–663 | 400 334–467 316–484 | 978 844–1112 809–1147 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 86.49 82.46–90.52 81.17–91.81 | 78.14 73.81–82.46 72.51–83.77 | — | 84% |
| Fouls | 9.23 6.39–12.07 5.64–12.83 | 12.85 9.91–15.80 9.16–16.55 | 22.09 16.30–27.87 14.80–29.37 | 19% 75% |
| Offsides | 1.65 0.49–2.81 0.19–3.11 | 2.14 1.05–3.24 0.76–3.52 | 3.79 1.54–6.05 0.95–6.64 | 30% 21% 49% |
| Yellow cards | 1.53 0.48–2.58 0.21–2.84 | 1.96 0.83–3.09 0.54–3.38 | 3.49 1.31–5.67 0.75–6.22 | 30% 22% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.18 1.74–4.61 1.35–5.00 | 3.44 1.88–4.99 1.46–5.42 | 6.61 3.62–9.61 2.81–10.42 | 38% 16% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.