Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
22%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.203.11safe0.95–2.880.34–2.051.29–4.94safer0.70–3.140.12–2.280.81–5.42
Shots on target
70%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.963.849.80safe4.10–7.822.10–5.586.19–13.40safer3.61–8.311.63–6.055.24–14.36
Total shots
83%
homeawaytotalprediction17.7212.0629.78safe13.80–21.658.49–15.6222.29–37.26safer12.71–22.747.53–16.5820.24–39.32
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction12.197.6319.82safe9.24–15.134.95–10.3114.19–25.44safer8.41–15.964.21–11.0512.63–27.01
Blocked shots
65%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.793.187.96safe2.91–6.671.52–4.834.43–11.50safer2.36–7.211.03–5.323.39–12.53
Corners
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction6.164.4610.62safe3.95–8.372.46–6.466.41–14.84safer3.37–8.951.93–7.005.30–15.95
Possession %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction54.0346.13safe47.24–60.8239.34–52.91safer45.57–62.4937.67–54.58
Passes
75%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction420340760safe353–487273–406626–894safer335–506256–424591–929
Pass accuracy %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction80.4075.03safe76.37–84.4370.71–79.36safer75.08–85.7369.40–80.67
Fouls
26%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7814.5026.27safe8.94–14.6111.55–17.4420.49–32.06safer8.18–15.3710.81–18.1918.99–33.56
Offsides
45%
25%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.262.84safe0.42–2.740.17–2.350.58–5.09safer0.12–3.040.00–2.640.00–5.68
Yellow cards
28%
21%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.542.123.65safe0.49–2.590.99–3.241.48–5.83safer0.22–2.850.70–3.540.92–6.39
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
21%
13%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction2.624.186.79safe1.18–4.052.62–5.733.80–9.79safer0.79–4.442.20–6.162.99–10.60
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.92 0.95–2.88 0.70–3.14 | 1.20 0.34–2.05 0.12–2.28 | 3.11 1.29–4.94 0.81–5.42 | 54% 22% 24% |
| Shots on target | 5.96 4.10–7.82 3.61–8.31 | 3.84 2.10–5.58 1.63–6.05 | 9.80 6.19–13.40 5.24–14.36 | 70% 20% |
| Total shots | 17.72 13.80–21.65 12.71–22.74 | 12.06 8.49–15.62 7.53–16.58 | 29.78 22.29–37.26 20.24–39.32 | 83% |
| Shots in box | 12.19 9.24–15.13 8.41–15.96 | 7.63 4.95–10.31 4.21–11.05 | 19.82 14.19–25.44 12.63–27.01 | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 4.79 2.91–6.67 2.36–7.21 | 3.18 1.52–4.83 1.03–5.32 | 7.96 4.43–11.50 3.39–12.53 | 65% 22% |
| Corners | 6.16 3.95–8.37 3.37–8.95 | 4.46 2.46–6.46 1.93–7.00 | 10.62 6.41–14.84 5.30–15.95 | 64% 25% |
| Possession % | 54.03 47.24–60.82 45.57–62.49 | 46.13 39.34–52.91 37.67–54.58 | — | 66% 30% |
| Passes | 420 353–487 335–506 | 340 273–406 256–424 | 760 626–894 591–929 | 75% 25% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.40 76.37–84.43 75.08–85.73 | 75.03 70.71–79.36 69.40–80.67 | — | 74% 22% |
| Fouls | 11.78 8.94–14.61 8.18–15.37 | 14.50 11.55–17.44 10.81–18.19 | 26.27 20.49–32.06 18.99–33.56 | 26% 67% |
| Offsides | 1.58 0.42–2.74 0.12–3.04 | 1.26 0.17–2.35 0.00–2.64 | 2.84 0.58–5.09 0.00–5.68 | 45% 25% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.54 0.49–2.59 0.22–2.85 | 2.12 0.99–3.24 0.70–3.54 | 3.65 1.48–5.83 0.92–6.39 | 28% 21% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.18–4.05 0.79–4.44 | 4.18 2.62–5.73 2.20–6.16 | 6.79 3.80–9.79 2.99–10.60 | 21% 13% 66% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.