Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
26%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.251.382.63safe0.28–2.210.53–2.240.80–4.45safer0.03–2.470.30–2.460.32–4.93
Shots on target
44%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.214.108.32safe2.35–6.072.36–5.854.71–11.92safer1.86–6.561.90–6.313.76–12.88
Total shots
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1112.0924.20safe8.19–16.048.53–15.6516.72–31.69safer7.10–17.137.57–16.6114.66–33.74
Shots in box
54%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction8.037.1715.20safe5.09–10.984.49–9.859.58–20.83safer4.26–11.813.75–10.598.01–22.39
Blocked shots
41%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.183.216.39safe1.29–5.061.56–4.872.85–9.92safer0.75–5.601.07–5.361.82–10.96
Corners
49%
13%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.694.238.92safe2.48–6.912.23–6.234.71–13.14safer1.91–7.481.69–6.763.60–14.24
Possession %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction47.5152.08safe40.72–54.3045.29–58.86safer39.05–55.9743.62–60.53
Passes
35%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction408455863safe341–476389–522730–997safer323–494371–539694–1033
Pass accuracy %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction82.4684.02safe78.44–86.4979.70–88.34safer77.14–87.7978.39–89.65
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7612.9124.67safe8.92–14.609.97–15.8518.89–30.45safer8.17–15.359.22–16.6017.38–31.96
Offsides
49%
21%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.101.613.71safe0.94–3.270.51–2.701.46–5.97safer0.64–3.570.23–2.990.87–6.55
Yellow cards
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.592.013.60safe0.54–2.640.88–3.141.42–5.78safer0.28–2.910.59–3.430.86–6.33
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.130.20safe0.00–0.240.00–0.310.00–0.55safer0.00–0.380.00–0.450.00–0.83
GK saves
40%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.722.825.54safe1.28–4.161.27–4.382.55–8.54safer0.90–4.540.84–4.801.74–9.35
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.25 0.28–2.21 0.03–2.47 | 1.38 0.53–2.24 0.30–2.46 | 2.63 0.80–4.45 0.32–4.93 | 34% 26% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.21 2.35–6.07 1.86–6.56 | 4.10 2.36–5.85 1.90–6.31 | 8.32 4.71–11.92 3.76–12.88 | 44% 14% 42% |
| Total shots | 12.11 8.19–16.04 7.10–17.13 | 12.09 8.53–15.65 7.57–16.61 | 24.20 16.72–31.69 14.66–33.74 | 46% 46% |
| Shots in box | 8.03 5.09–10.98 4.26–11.81 | 7.17 4.49–9.85 3.75–10.59 | 15.20 9.58–20.83 8.01–22.39 | 54% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 3.18 1.29–5.06 0.75–5.60 | 3.21 1.56–4.87 1.07–5.36 | 6.39 2.85–9.92 1.82–10.96 | 41% 16% 42% |
| Corners | 4.69 2.48–6.91 1.91–7.48 | 4.23 2.23–6.23 1.69–6.76 | 8.92 4.71–13.14 3.60–14.24 | 49% 13% 37% |
| Possession % | 47.51 40.72–54.30 39.05–55.97 | 52.08 45.29–58.86 43.62–60.53 | — | 37% 58% |
| Passes | 408 341–476 323–494 | 455 389–522 371–539 | 863 730–997 694–1033 | 35% 65% |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.46 78.44–86.49 77.14–87.79 | 84.02 79.70–88.34 78.39–89.65 | — | 40% 55% |
| Fouls | 11.76 8.92–14.60 8.17–15.35 | 12.91 9.97–15.85 9.22–16.60 | 24.67 18.89–30.45 17.38–31.96 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 2.10 0.94–3.27 0.64–3.57 | 1.61 0.51–2.70 0.23–2.99 | 3.71 1.46–5.97 0.87–6.55 | 49% 21% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.59 0.54–2.64 0.28–2.91 | 2.01 0.88–3.14 0.59–3.43 | 3.60 1.42–5.78 0.86–6.33 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.72 1.28–4.16 0.90–4.54 | 2.82 1.27–4.38 0.84–4.80 | 5.54 2.55–8.54 1.74–9.35 | 40% 17% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.