Predicted match statistics
Goals
25%
25%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.061.622.68safe0.09–2.020.76–2.470.85–4.50safer0.00–2.280.54–2.700.37–4.98
Shots on target
29%
13%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction3.644.728.36safe1.78–5.502.98–6.474.76–11.97safer1.29–5.992.51–6.933.80–12.92
Total shots
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0712.6725.74safe9.14–16.999.11–16.2318.25–33.22safer8.05–18.088.15–17.1916.20–35.27
Shots in box
44%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction8.508.5717.07safe5.56–11.445.89–11.2511.45–22.70safer4.73–12.275.15–11.999.88–24.26
Blocked shots
42%
15%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.753.837.58safe1.87–5.642.18–5.494.05–11.12safer1.33–6.181.69–5.983.01–12.16
Corners
43%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.814.889.69safe2.59–7.022.88–6.885.48–13.90safer2.02–7.602.35–7.414.37–15.01
Possession %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction43.8655.41safe37.07–50.6548.63–62.20safer35.40–52.3246.96–63.87
Passes
17%
83%
homeawaytotalprediction402517919safe335–469450–583785–1052safer317–487433–601749–1088
Pass accuracy %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction78.6580.12safe74.62–82.6875.79–84.44safer73.33–83.9774.49–85.75
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2010.8722.07safe8.36–14.047.92–13.8116.28–27.85safer7.61–14.797.17–14.5614.78–29.35
Offsides
23%
21%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.272.113.38safe0.11–2.441.01–3.201.13–5.64safer0.00–2.740.73–3.490.54–6.22
Yellow cards
45%
22%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.553.39safe0.79–2.890.42–2.671.21–5.57safer0.53–3.160.13–2.970.65–6.12
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.390.00–0.79
GK saves
45%
17%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.032.805.83safe1.60–4.471.24–4.362.84–8.83safer1.21–4.860.82–4.782.03–9.64
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.06 0.09–2.02 0.00–2.28 | 1.62 0.76–2.47 0.54–2.70 | 2.68 0.85–4.50 0.37–4.98 | 25% 25% 50% |
| Shots on target | 3.64 1.78–5.50 1.29–5.99 | 4.72 2.98–6.47 2.51–6.93 | 8.36 4.76–11.97 3.80–12.92 | 29% 13% 58% |
| Total shots | 13.07 9.14–16.99 8.05–18.08 | 12.67 9.11–16.23 8.15–17.19 | 25.74 18.25–33.22 16.20–35.27 | 49% 43% |
| Shots in box | 8.50 5.56–11.44 4.73–12.27 | 8.57 5.89–11.25 5.15–11.99 | 17.07 11.45–22.70 9.88–24.26 | 44% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 3.75 1.87–5.64 1.33–6.18 | 3.83 2.18–5.49 1.69–5.98 | 7.58 4.05–11.12 3.01–12.16 | 42% 15% 44% |
| Corners | 4.81 2.59–7.02 2.02–7.60 | 4.88 2.88–6.88 2.35–7.41 | 9.69 5.48–13.90 4.37–15.01 | 43% 44% |
| Possession % | 43.86 37.07–50.65 35.40–52.32 | 55.41 48.63–62.20 46.96–63.87 | — | 23% 73% |
| Passes | 402 335–469 317–487 | 517 450–583 433–601 | 919 785–1052 749–1088 | 17% 83% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.65 74.62–82.68 73.33–83.97 | 80.12 75.79–84.44 74.49–85.75 | — | 40% 55% |
| Fouls | 11.20 8.36–14.04 7.61–14.79 | 10.87 7.92–13.81 7.17–14.56 | 22.07 16.28–27.85 14.78–29.35 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.27 0.11–2.44 0.00–2.74 | 2.11 1.01–3.20 0.73–3.49 | 3.38 1.13–5.64 0.54–6.22 | 23% 21% 56% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.79–2.89 0.53–3.16 | 1.55 0.42–2.67 0.13–2.97 | 3.39 1.21–5.57 0.65–6.12 | 45% 22% 33% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.03 1.60–4.47 1.21–4.86 | 2.80 1.24–4.36 0.82–4.78 | 5.83 2.84–8.83 2.03–9.64 | 45% 17% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.