Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
27%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.091.382.47safe0.12–2.060.52–2.230.65–4.29safer0.00–2.310.29–2.460.17–4.77
Shots on target
38%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.914.278.18safe2.05–5.772.53–6.014.57–11.78safer1.56–6.262.06–6.483.62–12.74
Total shots
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4212.4024.82safe8.49–16.348.84–15.9617.33–32.30safer7.40–17.437.88–16.9215.28–34.35
Shots in box
36%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction7.087.9515.03safe4.14–10.035.27–10.639.41–20.65safer3.31–10.854.53–11.377.84–22.22
Blocked shots
52%
16%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.542.916.46safe1.66–5.431.26–4.572.92–9.99safer1.12–5.970.77–5.061.89–11.03
Corners
46%
13%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.644.449.08safe2.42–6.852.44–6.444.87–13.29safer1.85–7.421.91–6.983.76–14.40
Possession %
44%
52%
homeawayprediction49.2250.88safe42.43–56.0144.09–57.66safer40.76–57.6842.42–59.33
Passes
41%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction441467908safe374–508401–534775–1042safer356–526383–551739–1078
Pass accuracy %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction85.3185.28safe81.28–89.3480.96–89.60safer79.99–90.6379.65–90.91
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3414.0227.35safe10.50–16.1711.07–16.9621.57–33.14safer9.74–16.9310.33–17.7120.07–34.64
Offsides
35%
24%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.563.00safe0.28–2.600.47–2.660.74–5.25safer0.00–2.900.18–2.940.16–5.84
Yellow cards
33%
19%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.032.414.44safe0.98–3.081.28–3.542.26–6.61safer0.71–3.340.99–3.831.70–7.17
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
40%
17%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.742.805.54safe1.30–4.181.24–4.362.55–8.53safer0.92–4.560.82–4.781.74–9.34
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.09 0.12–2.06 0.00–2.31 | 1.38 0.52–2.23 0.29–2.46 | 2.47 0.65–4.29 0.17–4.77 | 30% 27% 43% |
| Shots on target | 3.91 2.05–5.77 1.56–6.26 | 4.27 2.53–6.01 2.06–6.48 | 8.18 4.57–11.78 3.62–12.74 | 38% 14% 48% |
| Total shots | 12.42 8.49–16.34 7.40–17.43 | 12.40 8.84–15.96 7.88–16.92 | 24.82 17.33–32.30 15.28–34.35 | 46% 46% |
| Shots in box | 7.08 4.14–10.03 3.31–10.85 | 7.95 5.27–10.63 4.53–11.37 | 15.03 9.41–20.65 7.84–22.22 | 36% 54% |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 1.66–5.43 1.12–5.97 | 2.91 1.26–4.57 0.77–5.06 | 6.46 2.92–9.99 1.89–11.03 | 52% 16% 33% |
| Corners | 4.64 2.42–6.85 1.85–7.42 | 4.44 2.44–6.44 1.91–6.98 | 9.08 4.87–13.29 3.76–14.40 | 46% 13% 41% |
| Possession % | 49.22 42.43–56.01 40.76–57.68 | 50.88 44.09–57.66 42.42–59.33 | — | 44% 52% |
| Passes | 441 374–508 356–526 | 467 401–534 383–551 | 908 775–1042 739–1078 | 41% 59% |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.31 81.28–89.34 79.99–90.63 | 85.28 80.96–89.60 79.65–90.91 | — | 48% 47% |
| Fouls | 13.34 10.50–16.17 9.74–16.93 | 14.02 11.07–16.96 10.33–17.71 | 27.35 21.57–33.14 20.07–34.64 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.44 0.28–2.60 0.00–2.90 | 1.56 0.47–2.66 0.18–2.94 | 3.00 0.74–5.25 0.16–5.84 | 35% 24% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 2.03 0.98–3.08 0.71–3.34 | 2.41 1.28–3.54 0.99–3.83 | 4.44 2.26–6.61 1.70–7.17 | 33% 19% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.74 1.30–4.18 0.92–4.56 | 2.80 1.24–4.36 0.82–4.78 | 5.54 2.55–8.53 1.74–9.34 | 40% 17% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.