Predicted match statistics
Goals
26%
26%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.031.492.53safe0.07–2.000.64–2.350.70–4.35safer0.00–2.250.41–2.580.22–4.83
Shots on target
28%
13%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction3.554.728.26safe1.68–5.412.97–6.464.66–11.87safer1.19–5.902.51–6.923.70–12.82
Total shots
28%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7613.0723.82safe6.83–14.689.51–16.6316.34–31.31safer5.74–15.778.55–17.5914.29–33.36
Shots in box
28%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction6.648.3615.00safe3.70–9.585.68–11.049.38–20.62safer2.87–10.414.94–11.787.81–22.19
Blocked shots
38%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.133.436.56safe1.25–5.011.78–5.083.03–10.10safer0.70–5.561.29–5.581.99–11.13
Corners
41%
13%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.494.669.15safe2.28–6.712.66–6.664.94–13.37safer1.71–7.282.12–7.193.83–14.47
Possession %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction44.0655.50safe37.27–50.8548.71–62.28safer35.60–52.5247.04–63.96
Passes
17%
83%
homeawaytotalprediction392505897safe325–460438–571763–1031safer307–478421–589728–1067
Pass accuracy %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction80.9985.28safe76.96–85.0180.95–89.60safer75.66–86.3179.64–90.91
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5912.8426.43safe10.75–16.439.89–15.7820.65–32.21safer10.00–17.189.15–16.5319.14–33.72
Offsides
26%
21%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.382.053.43safe0.22–2.540.96–3.151.18–5.69safer0.00–2.840.67–3.430.59–6.28
Yellow cards
49%
20%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.361.874.23safe1.31–3.410.74–3.002.05–6.41safer1.04–3.670.45–3.291.49–6.96
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.080.21safe0.00–0.290.00–0.270.00–0.56safer0.00–0.440.00–0.400.00–0.84
GK saves
45%
17%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.972.775.74safe1.53–4.411.22–4.332.75–8.74safer1.15–4.790.79–4.751.94–9.55
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.03 0.07–2.00 0.00–2.25 | 1.49 0.64–2.35 0.41–2.58 | 2.53 0.70–4.35 0.22–4.83 | 26% 26% 48% |
| Shots on target | 3.55 1.68–5.41 1.19–5.90 | 4.72 2.97–6.46 2.51–6.92 | 8.26 4.66–11.87 3.70–12.82 | 28% 13% 59% |
| Total shots | 10.76 6.83–14.68 5.74–15.77 | 13.07 9.51–16.63 8.55–17.59 | 23.82 16.34–31.31 14.29–33.36 | 28% 64% |
| Shots in box | 6.64 3.70–9.58 2.87–10.41 | 8.36 5.68–11.04 4.94–11.78 | 15.00 9.38–20.62 7.81–22.19 | 28% 62% |
| Blocked shots | 3.13 1.25–5.01 0.70–5.56 | 3.43 1.78–5.08 1.29–5.58 | 6.56 3.03–10.10 1.99–11.13 | 38% 16% 47% |
| Corners | 4.49 2.28–6.71 1.71–7.28 | 4.66 2.66–6.66 2.12–7.19 | 9.15 4.94–13.37 3.83–14.47 | 41% 13% 45% |
| Possession % | 44.06 37.27–50.85 35.60–52.52 | 55.50 48.71–62.28 47.04–63.96 | — | 23% 73% |
| Passes | 392 325–460 307–478 | 505 438–571 421–589 | 897 763–1031 728–1067 | 17% 83% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.99 76.96–85.01 75.66–86.31 | 85.28 80.95–89.60 79.64–90.91 | — | 27% 69% |
| Fouls | 13.59 10.75–16.43 10.00–17.18 | 12.84 9.89–15.78 9.15–16.53 | 26.43 20.65–32.21 19.14–33.72 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.38 0.22–2.54 0.00–2.84 | 2.05 0.96–3.15 0.67–3.43 | 3.43 1.18–5.69 0.59–6.28 | 26% 21% 53% |
| Yellow cards | 2.36 1.31–3.41 1.04–3.67 | 1.87 0.74–3.00 0.45–3.29 | 4.23 2.05–6.41 1.49–6.96 | 49% 20% 31% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.97 1.53–4.41 1.15–4.79 | 2.77 1.22–4.33 0.79–4.75 | 5.74 2.75–8.74 1.94–9.55 | 45% 17% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.