Serie A·Regular Season - 23·
Serie A·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
48%
25%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.082.64safe0.59–2.530.23–1.940.82–4.46safer0.34–2.780.00–2.170.34–4.94
Shots on target
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.123.458.57safe3.26–6.991.71–5.194.97–12.18safer2.77–7.481.24–5.664.01–13.13
Total shots
82%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2910.2525.54safe11.37–19.226.69–13.8118.06–33.03safer10.28–20.315.73–14.7716.00–35.08
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction10.176.7816.95safe7.22–13.114.10–9.4611.33–22.57safer6.39–13.943.36–10.209.76–24.14
Blocked shots
66%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.322.727.04safe2.43–6.201.07–4.373.50–10.57safer1.89–6.740.57–4.862.46–11.61
Corners
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.584.069.64safe3.37–7.792.06–6.065.42–13.85safer2.79–8.371.52–6.594.32–14.96
Possession %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction54.0446.30safe47.25–60.8339.51–53.08safer45.58–62.5037.84–54.75
Passes
66%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction449400849safe381–516333–466715–982safer363–534316–484679–1018
Pass accuracy %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction78.1576.76safe74.12–82.1872.44–81.09safer72.83–83.4771.13–82.39
Fouls
32%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8413.6925.53safe9.00–14.6710.75–16.6419.75–31.31safer8.24–15.4310.00–17.3918.24–32.82
Offsides
57%
21%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.121.273.39safe0.96–3.280.17–2.361.13–5.64safer0.66–3.580.00–2.650.54–6.23
Yellow cards
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.652.103.75safe0.61–2.700.97–3.221.57–5.93safer0.34–2.970.68–3.521.01–6.49
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
20%
14%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction2.293.806.09safe0.85–3.722.24–5.363.09–9.08safer0.46–4.111.82–5.782.28–9.89
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.56 0.59–2.53 0.34–2.78 | 1.08 0.23–1.94 0.00–2.17 | 2.64 0.82–4.46 0.34–4.94 | 48% 25% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.12 3.26–6.99 2.77–7.48 | 3.45 1.71–5.19 1.24–5.66 | 8.57 4.97–12.18 4.01–13.13 | 66% 23% |
| Total shots | 15.29 11.37–19.22 10.28–20.31 | 10.25 6.69–13.81 5.73–14.77 | 25.54 18.06–33.03 16.00–35.08 | 82% 13% |
| Shots in box | 10.17 7.22–13.11 6.39–13.94 | 6.78 4.10–9.46 3.36–10.20 | 16.95 11.33–22.57 9.76–24.14 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 4.32 2.43–6.20 1.89–6.74 | 2.72 1.07–4.37 0.57–4.86 | 7.04 3.50–10.57 2.46–11.61 | 66% 21% |
| Corners | 5.58 3.37–7.79 2.79–8.37 | 4.06 2.06–6.06 1.52–6.59 | 9.64 5.42–13.85 4.32–14.96 | 63% 26% |
| Possession % | 54.04 47.25–60.83 45.58–62.50 | 46.30 39.51–53.08 37.84–54.75 | — | 66% 30% |
| Passes | 449 381–516 363–534 | 400 333–466 316–484 | 849 715–982 679–1018 | 66% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.15 74.12–82.18 72.83–83.47 | 76.76 72.44–81.09 71.13–82.39 | — | 55% 40% |
| Fouls | 11.84 9.00–14.67 8.24–15.43 | 13.69 10.75–16.64 10.00–17.39 | 25.53 19.75–31.31 18.24–32.82 | 32% 61% |
| Offsides | 2.12 0.96–3.28 0.66–3.58 | 1.27 0.17–2.36 0.00–2.65 | 3.39 1.13–5.64 0.54–6.23 | 57% 21% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 0.61–2.70 0.34–2.97 | 2.10 0.97–3.22 0.68–3.52 | 3.75 1.57–5.93 1.01–6.49 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.29 0.85–3.72 0.46–4.11 | 3.80 2.24–5.36 1.82–5.78 | 6.09 3.09–9.08 2.28–9.89 | 20% 14% 66% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.