Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
25%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.572.90safe0.36–2.300.72–2.431.08–4.72safer0.11–2.550.49–2.660.60–5.20
Shots on target
40%
13%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.444.709.14safe2.58–6.302.96–6.455.54–12.75safer2.09–6.792.49–6.914.58–13.70
Total shots
50%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6213.1626.78safe9.69–17.549.60–16.7319.30–34.27safer8.60–18.648.64–17.6917.25–36.32
Shots in box
59%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction9.457.9717.42safe6.51–12.405.29–10.6511.80–23.04safer5.68–13.224.55–11.3810.23–24.61
Blocked shots
29%
14%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.164.177.33safe1.27–5.042.52–5.833.79–10.86safer0.73–5.582.03–6.322.76–11.90
Corners
45%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.774.669.43safe2.56–6.982.66–6.665.22–13.65safer1.98–7.562.13–7.204.11–14.75
Possession %
19%
78%
homeawayprediction43.3057.23safe36.51–50.0950.45–64.02safer34.84–51.7648.77–65.69
Passes
15%
85%
homeawaytotalprediction392516907safe324–459449–582773–1041safer306–477432–600738–1076
Pass accuracy %
27%
68%
homeawayprediction79.5883.78safe75.55–83.6179.46–88.11safer74.26–84.9078.15–89.42
Fouls
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1512.3824.52safe9.31–14.989.43–15.3218.74–30.30safer8.55–15.748.68–16.0717.23–31.81
Offsides
69%
15%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction3.111.534.64safe1.95–4.270.44–2.622.38–6.89safer1.65–4.570.15–2.911.79–7.48
Yellow cards
44%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.302.124.42safe1.25–3.350.99–3.252.24–6.59safer0.98–3.610.70–3.541.68–7.15
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.100.24safe0.00–0.300.00–0.290.00–0.59safer0.00–0.450.00–0.420.00–0.87
GK saves
40%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.882.985.86safe1.45–4.321.43–4.542.87–8.86safer1.06–4.711.00–4.962.06–9.67
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 0.36–2.30 0.11–2.55 | 1.57 0.72–2.43 0.49–2.66 | 2.90 1.08–4.72 0.60–5.20 | 32% 25% 43% |
| Shots on target | 4.44 2.58–6.30 2.09–6.79 | 4.70 2.96–6.45 2.49–6.91 | 9.14 5.54–12.75 4.58–13.70 | 40% 13% 47% |
| Total shots | 13.62 9.69–17.54 8.60–18.64 | 13.16 9.60–16.73 8.64–17.69 | 26.78 19.30–34.27 17.25–36.32 | 50% 43% |
| Shots in box | 9.45 6.51–12.40 5.68–13.22 | 7.97 5.29–10.65 4.55–11.38 | 17.42 11.80–23.04 10.23–24.61 | 59% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 3.16 1.27–5.04 0.73–5.58 | 4.17 2.52–5.83 2.03–6.32 | 7.33 3.79–10.86 2.76–11.90 | 29% 14% 57% |
| Corners | 4.77 2.56–6.98 1.98–7.56 | 4.66 2.66–6.66 2.13–7.20 | 9.43 5.22–13.65 4.11–14.75 | 45% 13% 42% |
| Possession % | 43.30 36.51–50.09 34.84–51.76 | 57.23 50.45–64.02 48.77–65.69 | — | 19% 78% |
| Passes | 392 324–459 306–477 | 516 449–582 432–600 | 907 773–1041 738–1076 | 15% 85% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.58 75.55–83.61 74.26–84.90 | 83.78 79.46–88.11 78.15–89.42 | — | 27% 68% |
| Fouls | 12.15 9.31–14.98 8.55–15.74 | 12.38 9.43–15.32 8.68–16.07 | 24.52 18.74–30.30 17.23–31.81 | 44% 48% |
| Offsides | 3.11 1.95–4.27 1.65–4.57 | 1.53 0.44–2.62 0.15–2.91 | 4.64 2.38–6.89 1.79–7.48 | 69% 15% 16% |
| Yellow cards | 2.30 1.25–3.35 0.98–3.61 | 2.12 0.99–3.25 0.70–3.54 | 4.42 2.24–6.59 1.68–7.15 | 44% 20% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.24 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.88 1.45–4.32 1.06–4.71 | 2.98 1.43–4.54 1.00–4.96 | 5.86 2.87–8.86 2.06–9.67 | 40% 17% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.