Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
24%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.492.97safe0.51–2.450.64–2.351.15–4.80safer0.26–2.700.41–2.570.67–5.28
Shots on target
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.364.429.78safe3.50–7.232.68–6.166.18–13.39safer3.01–7.722.21–6.635.22–14.34
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9611.1926.15safe11.03–18.887.63–14.7618.66–33.64safer9.94–19.976.67–15.7216.61–35.69
Shots in box
55%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction8.857.8516.70safe5.91–11.795.16–10.5311.07–22.32safer5.08–12.624.43–11.269.51–23.89
Blocked shots
58%
15%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.692.666.36safe1.81–5.581.01–4.312.82–9.89safer1.27–6.120.52–4.811.79–10.93
Corners
55%
13%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.884.038.92safe2.67–7.102.03–6.034.70–13.13safer2.10–7.671.50–6.573.60–14.24
Possession %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction51.9148.36safe45.12–58.7041.57–55.14safer43.45–60.3739.90–56.81
Passes
61%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction483449932safe416–550383–516799–1066safer398–568365–533763–1102
Pass accuracy %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction84.0584.79safe80.02–88.0880.46–89.11safer78.73–89.3779.15–90.42
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7211.6923.41safe8.88–14.558.75–14.6417.63–29.19safer8.12–15.318.00–15.3916.13–30.70
Offsides
36%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.703.045.74safe1.54–3.861.95–4.143.49–7.99safer1.24–4.161.66–4.432.90–8.58
Yellow cards
34%
18%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.222.634.85safe1.17–3.271.50–3.762.67–7.02safer0.90–3.531.21–4.052.11–7.58
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.120.26safe0.00–0.300.00–0.310.00–0.61safer0.00–0.450.00–0.440.00–0.89
GK saves
30%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.713.486.19safe1.28–4.151.92–5.043.20–9.18safer0.89–4.541.50–5.462.39–10.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.51–2.45 0.26–2.70 | 1.49 0.64–2.35 0.41–2.57 | 2.97 1.15–4.80 0.67–5.28 | 38% 24% 38% |
| Shots on target | 5.36 3.50–7.23 3.01–7.72 | 4.42 2.68–6.16 2.21–6.63 | 9.78 6.18–13.39 5.22–14.34 | 56% 32% |
| Total shots | 14.96 11.03–18.88 9.94–19.97 | 11.19 7.63–14.76 6.67–15.72 | 26.15 18.66–33.64 16.61–35.69 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 8.85 5.91–11.79 5.08–12.62 | 7.85 5.16–10.53 4.43–11.26 | 16.70 11.07–22.32 9.51–23.89 | 55% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 3.69 1.81–5.58 1.27–6.12 | 2.66 1.01–4.31 0.52–4.81 | 6.36 2.82–9.89 1.79–10.93 | 58% 15% 27% |
| Corners | 4.88 2.67–7.10 2.10–7.67 | 4.03 2.03–6.03 1.50–6.57 | 8.92 4.70–13.13 3.60–14.24 | 55% 13% 32% |
| Possession % | 51.91 45.12–58.70 43.45–60.37 | 48.36 41.57–55.14 39.90–56.81 | — | 56% 39% |
| Passes | 483 416–550 398–568 | 449 383–516 365–533 | 932 799–1066 763–1102 | 61% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.05 80.02–88.08 78.73–89.37 | 84.79 80.46–89.11 79.15–90.42 | — | 44% 51% |
| Fouls | 11.72 8.88–14.55 8.12–15.31 | 11.69 8.75–14.64 8.00–15.39 | 23.41 17.63–29.19 16.13–30.70 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 2.70 1.54–3.86 1.24–4.16 | 3.04 1.95–4.14 1.66–4.43 | 5.74 3.49–7.99 2.90–8.58 | 36% 17% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 2.22 1.17–3.27 0.90–3.53 | 2.63 1.50–3.76 1.21–4.05 | 4.85 2.67–7.02 2.11–7.58 | 34% 18% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 78% |
| GK saves | 2.71 1.28–4.15 0.89–4.54 | 3.48 1.92–5.04 1.50–5.46 | 6.19 3.20–9.18 2.39–10.00 | 30% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+