Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
26%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.231.452.68safe0.26–2.200.60–2.300.86–4.50safer0.01–2.450.37–2.530.38–4.98
Shots on target
39%
14%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.154.438.58safe2.29–6.012.69–6.184.98–12.19safer1.80–6.502.22–6.644.02–13.14
Total shots
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7413.1825.93safe8.82–16.679.62–16.7418.44–33.41safer7.73–17.768.66–17.7016.39–35.46
Shots in box
43%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction8.218.4016.61safe5.27–11.165.72–11.0810.99–22.23safer4.44–11.984.98–11.829.42–23.80
Blocked shots
38%
15%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.633.957.58safe1.75–5.522.29–5.604.05–11.12safer1.21–6.061.80–6.093.01–12.15
Corners
46%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.994.779.76safe2.78–7.212.77–6.775.55–13.97safer2.20–7.782.23–7.304.44–15.08
Possession %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction44.4354.97safe37.64–51.2248.18–61.75safer35.97–52.8946.51–63.42
Passes
21%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction401496897safe334–468429–562763–1030safer316–486412–580727–1066
Pass accuracy %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction83.1486.81safe79.11–87.1782.48–91.13safer77.82–88.4681.17–92.44
Fouls
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8511.7224.58safe10.02–15.698.78–14.6718.79–30.36safer9.26–16.458.03–15.4217.29–31.86
Offsides
37%
24%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.533.04safe0.35–2.670.44–2.620.79–5.30safer0.05–2.970.15–2.910.20–5.88
Yellow cards
41%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.981.903.88safe0.93–3.030.77–3.031.71–6.06safer0.67–3.300.48–3.321.15–6.62
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.090.18safe0.00–0.250.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
46%
17%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.162.906.06safe1.72–4.591.35–4.463.06–9.05safer1.33–4.980.92–4.882.25–9.86
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 0.26–2.20 0.01–2.45 | 1.45 0.60–2.30 0.37–2.53 | 2.68 0.86–4.50 0.38–4.98 | 32% 26% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.15 2.29–6.01 1.80–6.50 | 4.43 2.69–6.18 2.22–6.64 | 8.58 4.98–12.19 4.02–13.14 | 39% 14% 47% |
| Total shots | 12.74 8.82–16.67 7.73–17.76 | 13.18 9.62–16.74 8.66–17.70 | 25.93 18.44–33.41 16.39–35.46 | 43% 49% |
| Shots in box | 8.21 5.27–11.16 4.44–11.98 | 8.40 5.72–11.08 4.98–11.82 | 16.61 10.99–22.23 9.42–23.80 | 43% 47% |
| Blocked shots | 3.63 1.75–5.52 1.21–6.06 | 3.95 2.29–5.60 1.80–6.09 | 7.58 4.05–11.12 3.01–12.15 | 38% 15% 47% |
| Corners | 4.99 2.78–7.21 2.20–7.78 | 4.77 2.77–6.77 2.23–7.30 | 9.76 5.55–13.97 4.44–15.08 | 46% 41% |
| Possession % | 44.43 37.64–51.22 35.97–52.89 | 54.97 48.18–61.75 46.51–63.42 | — | 25% 71% |
| Passes | 401 334–468 316–486 | 496 429–562 412–580 | 897 763–1030 727–1066 | 21% 78% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.14 79.11–87.17 77.82–88.46 | 86.81 82.48–91.13 81.17–92.44 | — | 30% 66% |
| Fouls | 12.85 10.02–15.69 9.26–16.45 | 11.72 8.78–14.67 8.03–15.42 | 24.58 18.79–30.36 17.29–31.86 | 55% 37% |
| Offsides | 1.51 0.35–2.67 0.05–2.97 | 1.53 0.44–2.62 0.15–2.91 | 3.04 0.79–5.30 0.20–5.88 | 37% 24% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.98 0.93–3.03 0.67–3.30 | 1.90 0.77–3.03 0.48–3.32 | 3.88 1.71–6.06 1.15–6.62 | 41% 21% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.16 1.72–4.59 1.33–4.98 | 2.90 1.35–4.46 0.92–4.88 | 6.06 3.06–9.05 2.25–9.86 | 46% 17% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.